Recent observational data from early August 2026 show record global and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures on August 1 and subsequent early-month days, with anomalies exceeding prior highs by substantial margins relative to 1991-2020 baselines. This aligns with 2026's trajectory as one of the warmest years on record, fueled by persistent ocean heat content, developing El Niño conditions, and cumulative greenhouse gas forcing. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the 1st-hottest outcome reflects these verified measurements from sources tracking daily anomalies. Revised final datasets or shifts in reference periods could alter rankings, though model consensus and ongoing heat suggest limited upside for lower placements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Los días 1, 2 y 3 de agosto de 2026 son los más calurosos de la historia?
¿Los días 1, 2 y 3 de agosto de 2026 son los más calurosos de la historia?
1st hottest 94%
2nd hottest 6%
3rd hottest 1.8%
4th or lower 1.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
1st hottest
94%
2nd hottest
6%
3rd hottest
2%
4th or lower
2%
1st hottest 94%
2nd hottest 6%
3rd hottest 1.8%
4th or lower 1.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
1st hottest
$502 Vol.
94%
2nd hottest
$334 Vol.
6%
3rd hottest
$152 Vol.
2%
4th or lower
$151 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from early August 2026 show record global and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures on August 1 and subsequent early-month days, with anomalies exceeding prior highs by substantial margins relative to 1991-2020 baselines. This aligns with 2026's trajectory as one of the warmest years on record, fueled by persistent ocean heat content, developing El Niño conditions, and cumulative greenhouse gas forcing. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the 1st-hottest outcome reflects these verified measurements from sources tracking daily anomalies. Revised final datasets or shifts in reference periods could alter rankings, though model consensus and ongoing heat suggest limited upside for lower placements.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado abierto: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volumen
$1,140Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from early August 2026 show record global and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures on August 1 and subsequent early-month days, with anomalies exceeding prior highs by substantial margins relative to 1991-2020 baselines. This aligns with 2026's trajectory as one of the warmest years on record, fueled by persistent ocean heat content, developing El Niño conditions, and cumulative greenhouse gas forcing. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the 1st-hottest outcome reflects these verified measurements from sources tracking daily anomalies. Revised final datasets or shifts in reference periods could alter rankings, though model consensus and ongoing heat suggest limited upside for lower placements.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$1,140Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from early August 2026 show record global and Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures on August 1 and subsequent early-month days, with anomalies exceeding prior highs by substantial margins relative to 1991-2020 baselines. This aligns with 2026's trajectory as one of the warmest years on record, fueled by persistent ocean heat content, developing El Niño conditions, and cumulative greenhouse gas forcing. Trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for the 1st-hottest outcome reflects these verified measurements from sources tracking daily anomalies. Revised final datasets or shifts in reference periods could alter rankings, though model consensus and ongoing heat suggest limited upside for lower placements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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