Dr. Furlan (PSD), the former mayor of Macapá, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the Amapá gubernatorial race ahead of the October 4 first round, with surveys from late September showing him at 53–55.7% of intended votes compared to incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil) at 37.4–40%. This gap, exceeding 18 points in the most recent Paraná Pesquisas data, has driven trader consensus toward Furlan, as his support exceeds the 50% threshold that could decide the contest without a runoff. Clécio, seeking a second term after serving as mayor and governor, faces higher rejection rates around 35%, while minor candidates including Delegado Marcos, Carlos Cley, and Jairo Palheta register below 1%. Late-campaign polling trends and Furlan’s established local base in the capital underpin the current implied probabilities.