Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by the United States, Lebanon, Argentina, and several Gulf states in late 2025 through early April 2026 followed specific national security concerns and regional tensions tied to proxy conflicts and missile incidents. Since those actions, diplomatic channels have shown no comparable new triggers, with official statements and procedural notices absent in the intervening weeks. This pattern supports trader consensus pricing "No" at 76.5 percent for an additional expulsion by the June 30 deadline, as current bilateral relations and institutional processes lack the catalysts seen earlier in the year. Scheduled diplomatic engagements through late spring offer limited scope for rapid shifts absent unforeseen developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by the United States, Lebanon, Argentina, and several Gulf states in late 2025 through early April 2026 followed specific national security concerns and regional tensions tied to proxy conflicts and missile incidents. Since those actions, diplomatic channels have shown no comparable new triggers, with official statements and procedural notices absent in the intervening weeks. This pattern supports trader consensus pricing "No" at 76.5 percent for an additional expulsion by the June 30 deadline, as current bilateral relations and institutional processes lack the catalysts seen earlier in the year. Scheduled diplomatic engagements through late spring offer limited scope for rapid shifts absent unforeseen developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volumen
$7,650Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by the United States, Lebanon, Argentina, and several Gulf states in late 2025 through early April 2026 followed specific national security concerns and regional tensions tied to proxy conflicts and missile incidents. Since those actions, diplomatic channels have shown no comparable new triggers, with official statements and procedural notices absent in the intervening weeks. This pattern supports trader consensus pricing "No" at 76.5 percent for an additional expulsion by the June 30 deadline, as current bilateral relations and institutional processes lack the catalysts seen earlier in the year. Scheduled diplomatic engagements through late spring offer limited scope for rapid shifts absent unforeseen developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,650Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent expulsions of Iranian diplomats by the United States, Lebanon, Argentina, and several Gulf states in late 2025 through early April 2026 followed specific national security concerns and regional tensions tied to proxy conflicts and missile incidents. Since those actions, diplomatic channels have shown no comparable new triggers, with official statements and procedural notices absent in the intervening weeks. This pattern supports trader consensus pricing "No" at 76.5 percent for an additional expulsion by the June 30 deadline, as current bilateral relations and institutional processes lack the catalysts seen earlier in the year. Scheduled diplomatic engagements through late spring offer limited scope for rapid shifts absent unforeseen developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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