Recent July core PCE data held steady at 3.3% year-over-year, matching economist expectations and the June FOMC median projection for full-year 2026, which has kept near-term trader focus clustered around 3.2–3.3%. Persistent services price pressures and limited progress toward the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by recent hawkish comments from Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole, support the view that August readings may not ease materially. The closely matched probabilities reflect uncertainty ahead of key inputs including the August employment report, retail sales, and any revisions to prior months, with outcomes hinging on whether underlying inflation momentum reaccelerates or shows further moderation in the coming weeks.