Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System place Madrid’s maximum temperature on May 18 most likely between 23°C and 25°C, driving the market’s concentration of implied probability on those exact outcomes. Mid-May climatology in central Spain typically features daytime highs near 22–24°C under transitional spring conditions, with variability arising from subtle shifts in the subtropical ridge and Atlantic moisture transport. Current model consensus shows limited spread across runs, supporting trader positioning around the 24°C bin at roughly 40% while assigning lower weight to outliers above 26°C or below 22°C. Final resolution will hinge on official readings from Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport tomorrow, with any last-minute model updates potentially narrowing or widening the favored range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 18 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 18 de mayo?
24°C 41%
23°C 27%
25°C 18%
22°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 may 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
8%
23°C
27%
24°C
41%
25°C
18%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
24°C 41%
23°C 27%
25°C 18%
22°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 may 2026
18°C or below
$366 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$434 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,285 Vol.
1%
21°C
$841 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,086 Vol.
8%
23°C
$857 Vol.
27%
24°C
$604 Vol.
41%
25°C
$681 Vol.
18%
26°C
$206 Vol.
5%
27°C
$293 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$503 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System place Madrid’s maximum temperature on May 18 most likely between 23°C and 25°C, driving the market’s concentration of implied probability on those exact outcomes. Mid-May climatology in central Spain typically features daytime highs near 22–24°C under transitional spring conditions, with variability arising from subtle shifts in the subtropical ridge and Atlantic moisture transport. Current model consensus shows limited spread across runs, supporting trader positioning around the 24°C bin at roughly 40% while assigning lower weight to outliers above 26°C or below 22°C. Final resolution will hinge on official readings from Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport tomorrow, with any last-minute model updates potentially narrowing or widening the favored range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volumen
$7,050Fecha de finalización
18 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System place Madrid’s maximum temperature on May 18 most likely between 23°C and 25°C, driving the market’s concentration of implied probability on those exact outcomes. Mid-May climatology in central Spain typically features daytime highs near 22–24°C under transitional spring conditions, with variability arising from subtle shifts in the subtropical ridge and Atlantic moisture transport. Current model consensus shows limited spread across runs, supporting trader positioning around the 24°C bin at roughly 40% while assigning lower weight to outliers above 26°C or below 22°C. Final resolution will hinge on official readings from Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport tomorrow, with any last-minute model updates potentially narrowing or widening the favored range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$7,050Fecha de finalización
18 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDRecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System place Madrid’s maximum temperature on May 18 most likely between 23°C and 25°C, driving the market’s concentration of implied probability on those exact outcomes. Mid-May climatology in central Spain typically features daytime highs near 22–24°C under transitional spring conditions, with variability arising from subtle shifts in the subtropical ridge and Atlantic moisture transport. Current model consensus shows limited spread across runs, supporting trader positioning around the 24°C bin at roughly 40% while assigning lower weight to outliers above 26°C or below 22°C. Final resolution will hinge on official readings from Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport tomorrow, with any last-minute model updates potentially narrowing or widening the favored range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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