National Weather Service model ensembles currently converge on a peak temperature of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport, the official observation site, placing the 88–89 °F and 86–87 °F bins at the top of trader probabilities. Strong solar insolation under mostly clear skies is driving afternoon heating, though minor differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and the exact timing of maximum temperature create the tight spread between those two leading outcomes. Historical May climatology for the New York area shows daily highs averaging near 76 °F, so today’s conditions represent a notable warm anomaly that has kept higher bins like 90–91 °F at lower implied odds. Updated model runs and real-time surface observations in the final hours before peak heating will determine resolution within the narrow forecast range.