Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance has converged on a precise 24 °C daytime maximum for Seoul on May 16 under a stable high-pressure ridge that favors subsidence, clear skies, and only modest southerly warm-air advection. This setup aligns with the historical May climatology for the region, where typical highs range 22–24 °C, and current ensemble model consensus shows minimal spread around that value. The market’s 100 % implied probability for exactly 24 °C therefore reflects traders’ confidence in the official forecast and the absence of significant boundary-layer warming mechanisms. Only an unanticipated strengthening of the urban heat-island effect or a late revision in the final observational data could realistically shift the outcome toward 25 °C or higher before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on May 16?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 16?
24°C 100.0%
16°C o menos <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$328,286 Vol.
$328,286 Vol.
16 may 2026
16°C o menos
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Sí
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
16°C o menos <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$328,286 Vol.
$328,286 Vol.
16 may 2026
16°C o menos
$105,933 Vol.
No
17°C
$4,940 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,747 Vol.
No
19°C
$8,166 Vol.
No
20°C
$7,976 Vol.
No
21°C
$16,986 Vol.
No
22°C
$23,607 Vol.
No
23°C
$28,971 Vol.
No
24°C
$51,538 Vol.
Sí
25°C
$27,519 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$50,902 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance has converged on a precise 24 °C daytime maximum for Seoul on May 16 under a stable high-pressure ridge that favors subsidence, clear skies, and only modest southerly warm-air advection. This setup aligns with the historical May climatology for the region, where typical highs range 22–24 °C, and current ensemble model consensus shows minimal spread around that value. The market’s 100 % implied probability for exactly 24 °C therefore reflects traders’ confidence in the official forecast and the absence of significant boundary-layer warming mechanisms. Only an unanticipated strengthening of the urban heat-island effect or a late revision in the final observational data could realistically shift the outcome toward 25 °C or higher before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$328,286Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance has converged on a precise 24 °C daytime maximum for Seoul on May 16 under a stable high-pressure ridge that favors subsidence, clear skies, and only modest southerly warm-air advection. This setup aligns with the historical May climatology for the region, where typical highs range 22–24 °C, and current ensemble model consensus shows minimal spread around that value. The market’s 100 % implied probability for exactly 24 °C therefore reflects traders’ confidence in the official forecast and the absence of significant boundary-layer warming mechanisms. Only an unanticipated strengthening of the urban heat-island effect or a late revision in the final observational data could realistically shift the outcome toward 25 °C or higher before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$328,286Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance has converged on a precise 24 °C daytime maximum for Seoul on May 16 under a stable high-pressure ridge that favors subsidence, clear skies, and only modest southerly warm-air advection. This setup aligns with the historical May climatology for the region, where typical highs range 22–24 °C, and current ensemble model consensus shows minimal spread around that value. The market’s 100 % implied probability for exactly 24 °C therefore reflects traders’ confidence in the official forecast and the absence of significant boundary-layer warming mechanisms. Only an unanticipated strengthening of the urban heat-island effect or a late revision in the final observational data could realistically shift the outcome toward 25 °C or higher before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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