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¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?

icon for ¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?

¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?

dic 31

dic 31

400-500 mil 64%

300,000-400,000 18%

500-600 mil 9.3%

>1 millón 3.3%

Polymarket

$122,674 Vol.

400-500 mil 64%

300,000-400,000 18%

500-600 mil 9.3%

>1 millón 3.3%

Polymarket

$122,674 Vol.

<200k

$10,181 Vol.

2%

200-300 mil

$9,657 Vol.

<1%

300,000-400,000

$14,906 Vol.

18%

400-500 mil

$7,727 Vol.

61%

500-600 mil

$6,316 Vol.

9%

600-700k

$5,645 Vol.

2%

700-800 mil

$41,851 Vol.

1%

800-900 mil

$12,769 Vol.

2%

900k-1m

$6,542 Vol.

1%

>1 millón

$7,081 Vol.

3%

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.Current ICE removal operations place the 2026 total on a trajectory of roughly 430,000–460,000 formal deportations, driven by daily averages of 1,200–1,300 removals amid expanded detention capacity and record interior arrests. This pace, sustained through mid-2026, aligns closely with the 400-500k range that dominates trader consensus at 59.5 percent. Earlier-year enforcement ramps produced lower annualized figures, while administration targets of one million have not materialized due to logistical, legal, and resource constraints. Recent monthly data through July show continued steady output without sharp acceleration or deceleration, supporting the 300-400k bin as the next most probable outcome at 17.5 percent and limiting higher bins to single-digit probabilities.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$122,674
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.Current ICE removal operations place the 2026 total on a trajectory of roughly 430,000–460,000 formal deportations, driven by daily averages of 1,200–1,300 removals amid expanded detention capacity and record interior arrests. This pace, sustained through mid-2026, aligns closely with the 400-500k range that dominates trader consensus at 59.5 percent. Earlier-year enforcement ramps produced lower annualized figures, while administration targets of one million have not materialized due to logistical, legal, and resource constraints. Recent monthly data through July show continued steady output without sharp acceleration or deceleration, supporting the 300-400k bin as the next most probable outcome at 17.5 percent and limiting higher bins to single-digit probabilities.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$122,674
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 10 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "400-500 mil" con 61%, seguido de "300,000-400,000" con 18%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 61¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 61% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?" ha generado $122.7K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 5, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?", explora los 10 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?" es "400-500 mil" con 61%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 61% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "300,000-400,000" con 18%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuántas personas deportará Trump en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.