Current ICE removal operations place the 2026 total on a trajectory of roughly 430,000–460,000 formal deportations, driven by daily averages of 1,200–1,300 removals amid expanded detention capacity and record interior arrests. This pace, sustained through mid-2026, aligns closely with the 400-500k range that dominates trader consensus at 59.5 percent. Earlier-year enforcement ramps produced lower annualized figures, while administration targets of one million have not materialized due to logistical, legal, and resource constraints. Recent monthly data through July show continued steady output without sharp acceleration or deceleration, supporting the 300-400k bin as the next most probable outcome at 17.5 percent and limiting higher bins to single-digit probabilities.