Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 61% implied probability on the 20-39 daily average range for the week of May 11. Shipping data through early May showed daily passages stuck in single digits amid mine-clearance operations, naval presence, and lingering safety risks, well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 125-140 vessels per day. Recent reports of modest upticks to 9-13 transits on select days in early May reflect partial stabilization yet persistent constraints from sanctions enforcement and rerouting incentives. Traders assign only 29.5% odds to the 40-59 bucket, pricing in limited near-term recovery ahead of any full de-escalation. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores how macroeconomic trade flows and energy supply chains remain highly sensitive to Middle East security developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
20-39 61%
40-59 29%
60-79 5.0%
<20 4.1%
$79,826 Vol.
$79,826 Vol.
17 may 2026
<20
4%
20-39
61%
40-59
29%
60-79
5%
80+
2%
20-39 61%
40-59 29%
60-79 5.0%
<20 4.1%
$79,826 Vol.
$79,826 Vol.
17 may 2026
<20
$28,269 Vol.
4%
20-39
$13,416 Vol.
61%
40-59
$14,564 Vol.
29%
60-79
$12,064 Vol.
5%
80+
$11,513 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 61% implied probability on the 20-39 daily average range for the week of May 11. Shipping data through early May showed daily passages stuck in single digits amid mine-clearance operations, naval presence, and lingering safety risks, well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 125-140 vessels per day. Recent reports of modest upticks to 9-13 transits on select days in early May reflect partial stabilization yet persistent constraints from sanctions enforcement and rerouting incentives. Traders assign only 29.5% odds to the 40-59 bucket, pricing in limited near-term recovery ahead of any full de-escalation. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores how macroeconomic trade flows and energy supply chains remain highly sensitive to Middle East security developments.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volumen
$79,826Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 61% implied probability on the 20-39 daily average range for the week of May 11. Shipping data through early May showed daily passages stuck in single digits amid mine-clearance operations, naval presence, and lingering safety risks, well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 125-140 vessels per day. Recent reports of modest upticks to 9-13 transits on select days in early May reflect partial stabilization yet persistent constraints from sanctions enforcement and rerouting incentives. Traders assign only 29.5% odds to the 40-59 bucket, pricing in limited near-term recovery ahead of any full de-escalation. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores how macroeconomic trade flows and energy supply chains remain highly sensitive to Middle East security developments.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$79,826Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 61% implied probability on the 20-39 daily average range for the week of May 11. Shipping data through early May showed daily passages stuck in single digits amid mine-clearance operations, naval presence, and lingering safety risks, well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 125-140 vessels per day. Recent reports of modest upticks to 9-13 transits on select days in early May reflect partial stabilization yet persistent constraints from sanctions enforcement and rerouting incentives. Traders assign only 29.5% odds to the 40-59 bucket, pricing in limited near-term recovery ahead of any full de-escalation. This skin-in-the-game consensus underscores how macroeconomic trade flows and energy supply chains remain highly sensitive to Middle East security developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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