Ongoing tensions from U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 prompted an immediate closure of Israeli airspace to civilian flights, with subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses sustaining regional risks through March. Partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport followed under strict limits, yet European aviation warnings and airline suspensions persisted into May amid an April ceasefire extension and ongoing blockade measures. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether fresh threats from proxy groups or renewed escalation could trigger another major shutdown before late May or June deadlines, tempered by gradual commercial flight resumption plans. Scheduled diplomatic reviews and potential Iranian responses within the resolution window remain key variables for probability shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$889,197 Vol.
31 may 2026
May 31
32%
30 de junio
48%
$889,197 Vol.
May 31
$384,870 Vol.
32%
30 de junio
$9,079 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions from U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 prompted an immediate closure of Israeli airspace to civilian flights, with subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses sustaining regional risks through March. Partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport followed under strict limits, yet European aviation warnings and airline suspensions persisted into May amid an April ceasefire extension and ongoing blockade measures. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether fresh threats from proxy groups or renewed escalation could trigger another major shutdown before late May or June deadlines, tempered by gradual commercial flight resumption plans. Scheduled diplomatic reviews and potential Iranian responses within the resolution window remain key variables for probability shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volumen
$889,197Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions from U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 prompted an immediate closure of Israeli airspace to civilian flights, with subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses sustaining regional risks through March. Partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport followed under strict limits, yet European aviation warnings and airline suspensions persisted into May amid an April ceasefire extension and ongoing blockade measures. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether fresh threats from proxy groups or renewed escalation could trigger another major shutdown before late May or June deadlines, tempered by gradual commercial flight resumption plans. Scheduled diplomatic reviews and potential Iranian responses within the resolution window remain key variables for probability shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$889,197Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions from U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February 2026 prompted an immediate closure of Israeli airspace to civilian flights, with subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses sustaining regional risks through March. Partial reopenings at Ben Gurion Airport followed under strict limits, yet European aviation warnings and airline suspensions persisted into May amid an April ceasefire extension and ongoing blockade measures. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether fresh threats from proxy groups or renewed escalation could trigger another major shutdown before late May or June deadlines, tempered by gradual commercial flight resumption plans. Scheduled diplomatic reviews and potential Iranian responses within the resolution window remain key variables for probability shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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