The open seat in La Prairie, following Christian Dubé’s departure from the Coalition Avenir Québec caucus and decision not to seek re-election, has produced a competitive multi-candidate field ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election. CAQ nominee Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise, PQ candidate Frédéric Côté, and QS nominee Francine van Winden currently trade near even odds, while Liberal Sonia Ziadé sits lower; the large number of additional named and “other” options at 50% reflects limited differentiation this early in the 39-day campaign. Provincial polling volatility, the new electoral map, and the absence of an incumbent advantage keep implied probabilities compressed, with separation likely to emerge from candidate visibility during advance polls, party leader debates, and any late shifts in regional turnout or issue salience.