Official Hong Kong Observatory data and regional model consensus have established a minimum air temperature of 25°C for May 15, 2026, driving the market-implied probability for that outcome above 99 percent. May climatology shows typical overnight lows between 24 °C and 26 °C under prevailing subtropical high-pressure conditions, with minimal diurnal cooling from urban heat-island effects at the primary measurement site. No significant cold-air advection or cloud-cover anomalies occurred to depress readings below this threshold. Forecasters note that only an unseasonal influx of northerly flow or localized instrumentation variance could have produced an 18 °C or lower result, an outcome now ruled out by post-event verification.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C o menos <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 Vol.
$63,971 Vol.
15 may 2026
18°C o menos
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C o menos <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 Vol.
$63,971 Vol.
15 may 2026
18°C o menos
$2,541 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,325 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,408 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,288 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,899 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,193 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$12,287 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$8,673 Vol.
100%
26°C
$12,015 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$8,229 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$4,112 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory data and regional model consensus have established a minimum air temperature of 25°C for May 15, 2026, driving the market-implied probability for that outcome above 99 percent. May climatology shows typical overnight lows between 24 °C and 26 °C under prevailing subtropical high-pressure conditions, with minimal diurnal cooling from urban heat-island effects at the primary measurement site. No significant cold-air advection or cloud-cover anomalies occurred to depress readings below this threshold. Forecasters note that only an unseasonal influx of northerly flow or localized instrumentation variance could have produced an 18 °C or lower result, an outcome now ruled out by post-event verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volumen
$63,971Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory data and regional model consensus have established a minimum air temperature of 25°C for May 15, 2026, driving the market-implied probability for that outcome above 99 percent. May climatology shows typical overnight lows between 24 °C and 26 °C under prevailing subtropical high-pressure conditions, with minimal diurnal cooling from urban heat-island effects at the primary measurement site. No significant cold-air advection or cloud-cover anomalies occurred to depress readings below this threshold. Forecasters note that only an unseasonal influx of northerly flow or localized instrumentation variance could have produced an 18 °C or lower result, an outcome now ruled out by post-event verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$63,971Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Hong Kong Observatory data and regional model consensus have established a minimum air temperature of 25°C for May 15, 2026, driving the market-implied probability for that outcome above 99 percent. May climatology shows typical overnight lows between 24 °C and 26 °C under prevailing subtropical high-pressure conditions, with minimal diurnal cooling from urban heat-island effects at the primary measurement site. No significant cold-air advection or cloud-cover anomalies occurred to depress readings below this threshold. Forecasters note that only an unseasonal influx of northerly flow or localized instrumentation variance could have produced an 18 °C or lower result, an outcome now ruled out by post-event verification.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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