The overwhelming market consensus favoring a 23°C low in Hong Kong on May 16 reflects consistent guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global forecast models showing stable subtropical conditions typical for mid-May. With no approaching weather systems or significant cloud cover expected to alter overnight radiative cooling, temperatures are projected to bottom out near the seasonal average of 23–25°C before rising through the day. Historical data from the past decade confirm that daily minima rarely fall below 22°C during this period absent unusual northerly winds or heavy rain. The sole realistic challenge would involve an unforeseen late-model run shift introducing cooler maritime air, though current ensemble agreement places such a deviation well outside probable outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Hong Kong el 16 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Hong Kong el 16 de mayo?
23°C 99.9%
18°C o menos <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$37,736 Vol.
$37,736 Vol.
16 may 2026
18°C o menos
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
100%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C o más
<1%
23°C 99.9%
18°C o menos <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$37,736 Vol.
$37,736 Vol.
16 may 2026
18°C o menos
$2,220 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,380 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$676 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,778 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,589 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$3,673 Vol.
100%
24°C
$6,962 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$8,368 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$5,219 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,252 Vol.
<1%
28°C o más
$2,619 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming market consensus favoring a 23°C low in Hong Kong on May 16 reflects consistent guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global forecast models showing stable subtropical conditions typical for mid-May. With no approaching weather systems or significant cloud cover expected to alter overnight radiative cooling, temperatures are projected to bottom out near the seasonal average of 23–25°C before rising through the day. Historical data from the past decade confirm that daily minima rarely fall below 22°C during this period absent unusual northerly winds or heavy rain. The sole realistic challenge would involve an unforeseen late-model run shift introducing cooler maritime air, though current ensemble agreement places such a deviation well outside probable outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$37,736Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The overwhelming market consensus favoring a 23°C low in Hong Kong on May 16 reflects consistent guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global forecast models showing stable subtropical conditions typical for mid-May. With no approaching weather systems or significant cloud cover expected to alter overnight radiative cooling, temperatures are projected to bottom out near the seasonal average of 23–25°C before rising through the day. Historical data from the past decade confirm that daily minima rarely fall below 22°C during this period absent unusual northerly winds or heavy rain. The sole realistic challenge would involve an unforeseen late-model run shift introducing cooler maritime air, though current ensemble agreement places such a deviation well outside probable outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$37,736Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThe overwhelming market consensus favoring a 23°C low in Hong Kong on May 16 reflects consistent guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global forecast models showing stable subtropical conditions typical for mid-May. With no approaching weather systems or significant cloud cover expected to alter overnight radiative cooling, temperatures are projected to bottom out near the seasonal average of 23–25°C before rising through the day. Historical data from the past decade confirm that daily minima rarely fall below 22°C during this period absent unusual northerly winds or heavy rain. The sole realistic challenge would involve an unforeseen late-model run shift introducing cooler maritime air, though current ensemble agreement places such a deviation well outside probable outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes