The dominant 99.9% market-implied odds for a 25°C low on May 15 reflect official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that exact minimum temperature amid typical subtropical spring conditions. Persistent high pressure and light winds kept overnight radiative cooling modest, preventing the drop below seasonal norms of 23–26°C for mid-May in the region. Forecasters had anticipated similar values from earlier model runs, and the final verified observation aligned precisely with trader expectations. Only an unreported sensor anomaly or revised post-analysis adjustment could shift resolution, though historical data revisions for this station remain rare.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C o menos <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,924 Vol.
$63,924 Vol.
15 may 2026
18°C o menos
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C o menos <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,924 Vol.
$63,924 Vol.
15 may 2026
18°C o menos
$2,534 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,325 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$2,398 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,288 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,899 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,193 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$12,257 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$8,673 Vol.
100%
26°C
$12,015 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$8,229 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$4,112 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The dominant 99.9% market-implied odds for a 25°C low on May 15 reflect official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that exact minimum temperature amid typical subtropical spring conditions. Persistent high pressure and light winds kept overnight radiative cooling modest, preventing the drop below seasonal norms of 23–26°C for mid-May in the region. Forecasters had anticipated similar values from earlier model runs, and the final verified observation aligned precisely with trader expectations. Only an unreported sensor anomaly or revised post-analysis adjustment could shift resolution, though historical data revisions for this station remain rare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volumen
$63,924Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The dominant 99.9% market-implied odds for a 25°C low on May 15 reflect official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that exact minimum temperature amid typical subtropical spring conditions. Persistent high pressure and light winds kept overnight radiative cooling modest, preventing the drop below seasonal norms of 23–26°C for mid-May in the region. Forecasters had anticipated similar values from earlier model runs, and the final verified observation aligned precisely with trader expectations. Only an unreported sensor anomaly or revised post-analysis adjustment could shift resolution, though historical data revisions for this station remain rare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$63,924Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant 99.9% market-implied odds for a 25°C low on May 15 reflect official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory confirming that exact minimum temperature amid typical subtropical spring conditions. Persistent high pressure and light winds kept overnight radiative cooling modest, preventing the drop below seasonal norms of 23–26°C for mid-May in the region. Forecasters had anticipated similar values from earlier model runs, and the final verified observation aligned precisely with trader expectations. Only an unreported sensor anomaly or revised post-analysis adjustment could shift resolution, though historical data revisions for this station remain rare.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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