The Democratic Party holds a 75% implied probability in the NJ-07 House race, driven by the district’s long-term demographic and registration shift toward Democrats, combined with early polling and rating upgrades that moved the seat from Lean Republican to Toss-up. Incumbent Republican Thomas Kean Jr. faces a stronger Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 contest, while broader midterm dynamics and historical patterns for first-term incumbents in competitive districts have weighed on Republican positioning. Traders appear to price in the potential for unified Democratic turnout in this swing area, though the outcome remains sensitive to primary results and national conditions through November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de NJ-07
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de NJ-07
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
74%
Partido Republicano
23%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$241 Vol.
74%
Partido Republicano
$3,727 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a 75% implied probability in the NJ-07 House race, driven by the district’s long-term demographic and registration shift toward Democrats, combined with early polling and rating upgrades that moved the seat from Lean Republican to Toss-up. Incumbent Republican Thomas Kean Jr. faces a stronger Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 contest, while broader midterm dynamics and historical patterns for first-term incumbents in competitive districts have weighed on Republican positioning. Traders appear to price in the potential for unified Democratic turnout in this swing area, though the outcome remains sensitive to primary results and national conditions through November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volumen
$3,968Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a 75% implied probability in the NJ-07 House race, driven by the district’s long-term demographic and registration shift toward Democrats, combined with early polling and rating upgrades that moved the seat from Lean Republican to Toss-up. Incumbent Republican Thomas Kean Jr. faces a stronger Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 contest, while broader midterm dynamics and historical patterns for first-term incumbents in competitive districts have weighed on Republican positioning. Traders appear to price in the potential for unified Democratic turnout in this swing area, though the outcome remains sensitive to primary results and national conditions through November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$3,968Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds a 75% implied probability in the NJ-07 House race, driven by the district’s long-term demographic and registration shift toward Democrats, combined with early polling and rating upgrades that moved the seat from Lean Republican to Toss-up. Incumbent Republican Thomas Kean Jr. faces a stronger Democratic primary field ahead of the June 2 contest, while broader midterm dynamics and historical patterns for first-term incumbents in competitive districts have weighed on Republican positioning. Traders appear to price in the potential for unified Democratic turnout in this swing area, though the outcome remains sensitive to primary results and national conditions through November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes