Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois maintaining a consistent lead in popular vote intentions ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election, with support concentrated among francophone voters that translates into favorable seat projections under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system. The Quebec Liberal Party and Coalition Avenir Québec trail in the low-to-mid 20s percent range in the latest surveys, limiting their paths to a plurality of seats despite competitive standings among decided voters. High levels of undecided respondents and modest CAQ gains in some mid-summer readings have not altered the overall hierarchy, while smaller parties remain marginal. Trader consensus therefore assigns the Parti Québécois the highest implied probability of forming the next government, consistent with current vote-share trends and historical patterns of regional support concentration.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
Ganador de las elecciones generales de Quebec
PQ 71%
PLQ 15%
CAQ 15%
PCQ <1%
$762,988 Vol.
$762,988 Vol.
5 oct 2026
PQ
71%
PLQ
15%
CAQ
15%
PCQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 71%
PLQ 15%
CAQ 15%
PCQ <1%
$762,988 Vol.
$762,988 Vol.
5 oct 2026
PQ
$82,900 Vol.
71%
PLQ
$102,416 Vol.
15%
CAQ
$109,138 Vol.
15%
PCQ
$209,420 Vol.
<1%
QS
$101,615 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,498 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois maintaining a consistent lead in popular vote intentions ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election, with support concentrated among francophone voters that translates into favorable seat projections under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system. The Quebec Liberal Party and Coalition Avenir Québec trail in the low-to-mid 20s percent range in the latest surveys, limiting their paths to a plurality of seats despite competitive standings among decided voters. High levels of undecided respondents and modest CAQ gains in some mid-summer readings have not altered the overall hierarchy, while smaller parties remain marginal. Trader consensus therefore assigns the Parti Québécois the highest implied probability of forming the next government, consistent with current vote-share trends and historical patterns of regional support concentration.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volumen
$762,988Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois maintaining a consistent lead in popular vote intentions ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election, with support concentrated among francophone voters that translates into favorable seat projections under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system. The Quebec Liberal Party and Coalition Avenir Québec trail in the low-to-mid 20s percent range in the latest surveys, limiting their paths to a plurality of seats despite competitive standings among decided voters. High levels of undecided respondents and modest CAQ gains in some mid-summer readings have not altered the overall hierarchy, while smaller parties remain marginal. Trader consensus therefore assigns the Parti Québécois the highest implied probability of forming the next government, consistent with current vote-share trends and historical patterns of regional support concentration.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volumen
$762,988Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois maintaining a consistent lead in popular vote intentions ahead of the October 5, 2026, provincial election, with support concentrated among francophone voters that translates into favorable seat projections under Quebec’s first-past-the-post system. The Quebec Liberal Party and Coalition Avenir Québec trail in the low-to-mid 20s percent range in the latest surveys, limiting their paths to a plurality of seats despite competitive standings among decided voters. High levels of undecided respondents and modest CAQ gains in some mid-summer readings have not altered the overall hierarchy, while smaller parties remain marginal. Trader consensus therefore assigns the Parti Québécois the highest implied probability of forming the next government, consistent with current vote-share trends and historical patterns of regional support concentration.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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