Incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race, reflecting sustained leads of 13 to 17 points over Fernando Haddad in recent Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and Atlas polls conducted through April. His strong approval ratings as governor, combined with limited momentum for a competitive third-way candidate, have heightened concerns within the Workers’ Party about a potential first-round victory on October 4. Fernando Haddad’s trailing standing stems from his formal PT candidacy launch in March, yet polls show him unable to close the gap decisively. Marginal shares for Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França align with survey results placing each below 5 percent, underscoring the polarized contest between the Republicanos incumbent and the PT challenger ahead of any possible runoff on October 25.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTarcísio de Freitas 82%
Kim Kataguiri 10.3%
Fernando Haddad 8.5%
Erika Hilton 1.9%
$26,317 Vol.
$26,317 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
82%
Kim Kataguiri
10%
Fernando Haddad
9%
Erika Hilton
2%
Márcio França
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 82%
Kim Kataguiri 10.3%
Fernando Haddad 8.5%
Erika Hilton 1.9%
$26,317 Vol.
$26,317 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$11,929 Vol.
82%
Kim Kataguiri
$4,186 Vol.
10%
Fernando Haddad
$3,970 Vol.
9%
Erika Hilton
$3,589 Vol.
2%
Márcio França
$2,644 Vol.
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race, reflecting sustained leads of 13 to 17 points over Fernando Haddad in recent Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and Atlas polls conducted through April. His strong approval ratings as governor, combined with limited momentum for a competitive third-way candidate, have heightened concerns within the Workers’ Party about a potential first-round victory on October 4. Fernando Haddad’s trailing standing stems from his formal PT candidacy launch in March, yet polls show him unable to close the gap decisively. Marginal shares for Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França align with survey results placing each below 5 percent, underscoring the polarized contest between the Republicanos incumbent and the PT challenger ahead of any possible runoff on October 25.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volumen
$26,317Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race, reflecting sustained leads of 13 to 17 points over Fernando Haddad in recent Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and Atlas polls conducted through April. His strong approval ratings as governor, combined with limited momentum for a competitive third-way candidate, have heightened concerns within the Workers’ Party about a potential first-round victory on October 4. Fernando Haddad’s trailing standing stems from his formal PT candidacy launch in March, yet polls show him unable to close the gap decisively. Marginal shares for Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França align with survey results placing each below 5 percent, underscoring the polarized contest between the Republicanos incumbent and the PT challenger ahead of any possible runoff on October 25.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$26,317Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race, reflecting sustained leads of 13 to 17 points over Fernando Haddad in recent Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and Atlas polls conducted through April. His strong approval ratings as governor, combined with limited momentum for a competitive third-way candidate, have heightened concerns within the Workers’ Party about a potential first-round victory on October 4. Fernando Haddad’s trailing standing stems from his formal PT candidacy launch in March, yet polls show him unable to close the gap decisively. Marginal shares for Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França align with survey results placing each below 5 percent, underscoring the polarized contest between the Republicanos incumbent and the PT challenger ahead of any possible runoff on October 25.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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