Incumbent Governor Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in São Paulo’s 2026 gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for his re-election. Recent Datafolha and Genial/Quaest polls show him ahead by double-digit margins over Fernando Haddad, with approval ratings supporting a potential first-round victory on October 4 amid limited third-way options. Workers’ Party strategists have expressed concern that the polarized contest between the Republicanos incumbent and the PT challenger could bypass a runoff. Kim Kataguiri’s 10.2% share aligns with his marginal polling as a Missão candidate, while lower-priced outcomes for Márcio França and Erika Hilton track their sub-5% survey support. The market pricing captures the absence of major shifts in candidate positioning or polling trends over the past month.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTarcísio de Freitas 82%
Kim Kataguiri 10.2%
Fernando Haddad 8.8%
Márcio França 1.7%
$26,822 Vol.
$26,822 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
82%
Kim Kataguiri
10%
Fernando Haddad
9%
Márcio França
2%
Erika Hilton
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 82%
Kim Kataguiri 10.2%
Fernando Haddad 8.8%
Márcio França 1.7%
$26,822 Vol.
$26,822 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$11,964 Vol.
82%
Kim Kataguiri
$4,221 Vol.
10%
Fernando Haddad
$4,053 Vol.
9%
Márcio França
$2,898 Vol.
2%
Erika Hilton
$3,685 Vol.
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Governor Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in São Paulo’s 2026 gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for his re-election. Recent Datafolha and Genial/Quaest polls show him ahead by double-digit margins over Fernando Haddad, with approval ratings supporting a potential first-round victory on October 4 amid limited third-way options. Workers’ Party strategists have expressed concern that the polarized contest between the Republicanos incumbent and the PT challenger could bypass a runoff. Kim Kataguiri’s 10.2% share aligns with his marginal polling as a Missão candidate, while lower-priced outcomes for Márcio França and Erika Hilton track their sub-5% survey support. The market pricing captures the absence of major shifts in candidate positioning or polling trends over the past month.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volumen
$26,822Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Governor Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in São Paulo’s 2026 gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for his re-election. Recent Datafolha and Genial/Quaest polls show him ahead by double-digit margins over Fernando Haddad, with approval ratings supporting a potential first-round victory on October 4 amid limited third-way options. Workers’ Party strategists have expressed concern that the polarized contest between the Republicanos incumbent and the PT challenger could bypass a runoff. Kim Kataguiri’s 10.2% share aligns with his marginal polling as a Missão candidate, while lower-priced outcomes for Márcio França and Erika Hilton track their sub-5% survey support. The market pricing captures the absence of major shifts in candidate positioning or polling trends over the past month.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$26,822Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Governor Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in São Paulo’s 2026 gubernatorial race, reflected in trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for his re-election. Recent Datafolha and Genial/Quaest polls show him ahead by double-digit margins over Fernando Haddad, with approval ratings supporting a potential first-round victory on October 4 amid limited third-way options. Workers’ Party strategists have expressed concern that the polarized contest between the Republicanos incumbent and the PT challenger could bypass a runoff. Kim Kataguiri’s 10.2% share aligns with his marginal polling as a Missão candidate, while lower-priced outcomes for Márcio França and Erika Hilton track their sub-5% survey support. The market pricing captures the absence of major shifts in candidate positioning or polling trends over the past month.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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