Recent polling for Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election places Vänsterpartiet and Miljöpartiet in a tight contest within the broader red-green opposition bloc, with V often showing a modest lead in the 6–8 percent range while MP hovers nearby. SCB data from May recorded V at 8.6 percent versus MP at 6.6 percent, though the latest Demoskop survey narrowed the gap to near parity at 6.5 percent and 6.6 percent. Traders cite V’s steadier historical support among left-leaning voters and consistent positioning in the red-green bloc as the basis for its slight edge in implied probability. No major leadership shifts or party-specific events have altered trajectories in recent weeks. Final turnout differentials, late campaign swings on economic or environmental priorities, and any movement among marginal voters remain the primary variables that could decide which party finishes ahead.