**Traders assign an 85.5% probability to "No" on a Trump-Greenland deal being signed by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any formal purchase or sovereignty-transfer agreement after months of diplomacy.** President Trump has repeatedly signaled interest in acquiring the Danish autonomous territory for Arctic security and resource reasons, including public statements at the January 2026 Davos meeting and the July NATO summit. Those comments produced only a loose "framework" for expanded U.S. military access, updated basing arrangements under the 1951 defense agreement, and screening of third-country investments—short of ownership transfer. Greenland and Danish officials have consistently rejected any sale, noting that Greenlanders must consent and have shown no interest, while European Commission President von der Leyen and Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen have accelerated EU investment and partnership commitments worth hundreds of millions of euros in recent weeks. Confidential U.S.-Denmark-Greenland talks have continued without breakthrough, and the roughly three-month window to year-end leaves little time for the legislative approvals, public referendums, or treaty ratification that a full deal would require. Market pricing therefore tracks the gap between rhetorical pressure and concrete progress toward a signed agreement.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
15% probabilidad
$100,695 Vol.
$100,695 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
15% probabilidad
$100,695 Vol.
$100,695 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 85.5% probability to "No" on a Trump-Greenland deal being signed by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any formal purchase or sovereignty-transfer agreement after months of diplomacy.**
President Trump has repeatedly signaled interest in acquiring the Danish autonomous territory for Arctic security and resource reasons, including public statements at the January 2026 Davos meeting and the July NATO summit. Those comments produced only a loose "framework" for expanded U.S. military access, updated basing arrangements under the 1951 defense agreement, and screening of third-country investments—short of ownership transfer. Greenland and Danish officials have consistently rejected any sale, noting that Greenlanders must consent and have shown no interest, while European Commission President von der Leyen and Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen have accelerated EU investment and partnership commitments worth hundreds of millions of euros in recent weeks. Confidential U.S.-Denmark-Greenland talks have continued without breakthrough, and the roughly three-month window to year-end leaves little time for the legislative approvals, public referendums, or treaty ratification that a full deal would require. Market pricing therefore tracks the gap between rhetorical pressure and concrete progress toward a signed agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 21, 2026, 5:59 PM ET
Volumen
$100,695Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 85.5% probability to "No" on a Trump-Greenland deal being signed by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any formal purchase or sovereignty-transfer agreement after months of diplomacy.**
President Trump has repeatedly signaled interest in acquiring the Danish autonomous territory for Arctic security and resource reasons, including public statements at the January 2026 Davos meeting and the July NATO summit. Those comments produced only a loose "framework" for expanded U.S. military access, updated basing arrangements under the 1951 defense agreement, and screening of third-country investments—short of ownership transfer. Greenland and Danish officials have consistently rejected any sale, noting that Greenlanders must consent and have shown no interest, while European Commission President von der Leyen and Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen have accelerated EU investment and partnership commitments worth hundreds of millions of euros in recent weeks. Confidential U.S.-Denmark-Greenland talks have continued without breakthrough, and the roughly three-month window to year-end leaves little time for the legislative approvals, public referendums, or treaty ratification that a full deal would require. Market pricing therefore tracks the gap between rhetorical pressure and concrete progress toward a signed agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$100,695Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 21, 2026, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 85.5% probability to "No" on a Trump-Greenland deal being signed by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any formal purchase or sovereignty-transfer agreement after months of diplomacy.** President Trump has repeatedly signaled interest in acquiring the Danish autonomous territory for Arctic security and resource reasons, including public statements at the January 2026 Davos meeting and the July NATO summit. Those comments produced only a loose "framework" for expanded U.S. military access, updated basing arrangements under the 1951 defense agreement, and screening of third-country investments—short of ownership transfer. Greenland and Danish officials have consistently rejected any sale, noting that Greenlanders must consent and have shown no interest, while European Commission President von der Leyen and Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen have accelerated EU investment and partnership commitments worth hundreds of millions of euros in recent weeks. Confidential U.S.-Denmark-Greenland talks have continued without breakthrough, and the roughly three-month window to year-end leaves little time for the legislative approvals, public referendums, or treaty ratification that a full deal would require. Market pricing therefore tracks the gap between rhetorical pressure and concrete progress toward a signed agreement.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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