Recent U.S. trade data and tariff effects are anchoring trader expectations for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit near the 800–900 billion range. Monthly shortfalls narrowed to 73.3 billion in June after a May spike to 77.6 billion, with first-half cumulative flows at 371 billion—well below 2025’s pace—reflecting lower imports of capital and consumer goods following 2025 tariff hikes and the unwind of front-loaded purchases. CBO projections show the deficit continuing to shrink as a share of GDP through the decade as import growth slows to 3.0 percent annually while exports expand faster amid dollar depreciation and services strength. Persistent domestic demand and fiscal stimulus remain swing factors that could widen the gap, but current policy and flow normalization continue to support the market’s consensus range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
31%
800–900 mil millones
42%
900 mil millones–1 billón
13%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1 billones+
6%
$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
$16,848 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800B
$670 Vol.
31%
800–900 mil millones
$1,519 Vol.
42%
900 mil millones–1 billón
$1,397 Vol.
13%
1T–1,1T
$1,458 Vol.
5%
1,1 billones+
$1,119 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and tariff effects are anchoring trader expectations for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit near the 800–900 billion range. Monthly shortfalls narrowed to 73.3 billion in June after a May spike to 77.6 billion, with first-half cumulative flows at 371 billion—well below 2025’s pace—reflecting lower imports of capital and consumer goods following 2025 tariff hikes and the unwind of front-loaded purchases. CBO projections show the deficit continuing to shrink as a share of GDP through the decade as import growth slows to 3.0 percent annually while exports expand faster amid dollar depreciation and services strength. Persistent domestic demand and fiscal stimulus remain swing factors that could widen the gap, but current policy and flow normalization continue to support the market’s consensus range.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$24,009Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and tariff effects are anchoring trader expectations for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit near the 800–900 billion range. Monthly shortfalls narrowed to 73.3 billion in June after a May spike to 77.6 billion, with first-half cumulative flows at 371 billion—well below 2025’s pace—reflecting lower imports of capital and consumer goods following 2025 tariff hikes and the unwind of front-loaded purchases. CBO projections show the deficit continuing to shrink as a share of GDP through the decade as import growth slows to 3.0 percent annually while exports expand faster amid dollar depreciation and services strength. Persistent domestic demand and fiscal stimulus remain swing factors that could widen the gap, but current policy and flow normalization continue to support the market’s consensus range.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$24,009Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data and tariff effects are anchoring trader expectations for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit near the 800–900 billion range. Monthly shortfalls narrowed to 73.3 billion in June after a May spike to 77.6 billion, with first-half cumulative flows at 371 billion—well below 2025’s pace—reflecting lower imports of capital and consumer goods following 2025 tariff hikes and the unwind of front-loaded purchases. CBO projections show the deficit continuing to shrink as a share of GDP through the decade as import growth slows to 3.0 percent annually while exports expand faster amid dollar depreciation and services strength. Persistent domestic demand and fiscal stimulus remain swing factors that could widen the gap, but current policy and flow normalization continue to support the market’s consensus range.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes