Recent polls from early May show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding 38–40 percent first-round support while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement for the Liberal Party, trails at 33–37 percent, with governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema plus smaller candidates dividing the remainder. This fragmented field and persistent polarization have kept both frontrunners well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory on October 4. Trader consensus at 86 percent for no first-round winner reflects these stable patterns across Quaest, Ideia, and Futura surveys, which continue to project a runoff amid high mutual rejection between leading contenders and limited vote consolidation in the coming months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$65,530 Vol.
$65,530 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Sí
$65,530 Vol.
$65,530 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from early May show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding 38–40 percent first-round support while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement for the Liberal Party, trails at 33–37 percent, with governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema plus smaller candidates dividing the remainder. This fragmented field and persistent polarization have kept both frontrunners well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory on October 4. Trader consensus at 86 percent for no first-round winner reflects these stable patterns across Quaest, Ideia, and Futura surveys, which continue to project a runoff amid high mutual rejection between leading contenders and limited vote consolidation in the coming months.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$65,530Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from early May show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding 38–40 percent first-round support while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement for the Liberal Party, trails at 33–37 percent, with governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema plus smaller candidates dividing the remainder. This fragmented field and persistent polarization have kept both frontrunners well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory on October 4. Trader consensus at 86 percent for no first-round winner reflects these stable patterns across Quaest, Ideia, and Futura surveys, which continue to project a runoff amid high mutual rejection between leading contenders and limited vote consolidation in the coming months.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$65,530Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls from early May show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding 38–40 percent first-round support while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, backed by his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement for the Liberal Party, trails at 33–37 percent, with governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema plus smaller candidates dividing the remainder. This fragmented field and persistent polarization have kept both frontrunners well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright victory on October 4. Trader consensus at 86 percent for no first-round winner reflects these stable patterns across Quaest, Ideia, and Futura surveys, which continue to project a runoff amid high mutual rejection between leading contenders and limited vote consolidation in the coming months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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