Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, continue to constrain commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows in normal conditions. Daily transits have averaged just 5-10 vessels since early April—down from a pre-war baseline of 60-130—due to Iranian permit requirements, toll proposals, selective clearances, and a U.S. naval presence enforcing blockades on Iranian-linked cargoes. Recent upticks, including 10 transits on May 4 amid U.S. escorts under Project Freedom, reflect incremental easing, yet major carriers like Hapag-Lloyd maintain suspensions amid risks of attacks or delays. With the May 31 resolution window approaching, trader sentiment hinges on whether negotiated access or further U.S. facilitation can push a single day's volume above the market threshold amid persistent uncertainty in energy supply chains and freight rates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$485,027 Vol.
31 may 2026
20+
47%
40+
9%
60+
6%
80+
3%
$485,027 Vol.
20+
$111,910 Vol.
47%
40+
$122,649 Vol.
9%
60+
$68,431 Vol.
6%
80+
$182,038 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, continue to constrain commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows in normal conditions. Daily transits have averaged just 5-10 vessels since early April—down from a pre-war baseline of 60-130—due to Iranian permit requirements, toll proposals, selective clearances, and a U.S. naval presence enforcing blockades on Iranian-linked cargoes. Recent upticks, including 10 transits on May 4 amid U.S. escorts under Project Freedom, reflect incremental easing, yet major carriers like Hapag-Lloyd maintain suspensions amid risks of attacks or delays. With the May 31 resolution window approaching, trader sentiment hinges on whether negotiated access or further U.S. facilitation can push a single day's volume above the market threshold amid persistent uncertainty in energy supply chains and freight rates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volumen
$485,027Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, continue to constrain commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows in normal conditions. Daily transits have averaged just 5-10 vessels since early April—down from a pre-war baseline of 60-130—due to Iranian permit requirements, toll proposals, selective clearances, and a U.S. naval presence enforcing blockades on Iranian-linked cargoes. Recent upticks, including 10 transits on May 4 amid U.S. escorts under Project Freedom, reflect incremental easing, yet major carriers like Hapag-Lloyd maintain suspensions amid risks of attacks or delays. With the May 31 resolution window approaching, trader sentiment hinges on whether negotiated access or further U.S. facilitation can push a single day's volume above the market threshold amid persistent uncertainty in energy supply chains and freight rates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$485,027Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions from the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, continue to constrain commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows in normal conditions. Daily transits have averaged just 5-10 vessels since early April—down from a pre-war baseline of 60-130—due to Iranian permit requirements, toll proposals, selective clearances, and a U.S. naval presence enforcing blockades on Iranian-linked cargoes. Recent upticks, including 10 transits on May 4 amid U.S. escorts under Project Freedom, reflect incremental easing, yet major carriers like Hapag-Lloyd maintain suspensions amid risks of attacks or delays. With the May 31 resolution window approaching, trader sentiment hinges on whether negotiated access or further U.S. facilitation can push a single day's volume above the market threshold amid persistent uncertainty in energy supply chains and freight rates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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