Trader consensus reflects a 76% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026, as the Trump administration prioritizes economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure over military action. President Trump's May 1 Executive Order 14404 targets Cuba's military-controlled sectors, including energy and mining, exacerbating the island's fuel shortages amid a U.S. blockade, while UN experts warn of humanitarian risks. April visits by U.S. officials to Havana proposed Starlink internet access in exchange for political prisoner releases, and recent CIA engagement underscores ongoing talks. Despite mid-April reports of Pentagon contingency planning and heightened surveillance flights, no invasion order has materialized, with traders citing high geopolitical costs, international backlash, and focus on Iran as key barriers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,976,369 Vol.
$1,976,369 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$1,976,369 Vol.
$1,976,369 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus reflects a 76% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026, as the Trump administration prioritizes economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure over military action. President Trump's May 1 Executive Order 14404 targets Cuba's military-controlled sectors, including energy and mining, exacerbating the island's fuel shortages amid a U.S. blockade, while UN experts warn of humanitarian risks. April visits by U.S. officials to Havana proposed Starlink internet access in exchange for political prisoner releases, and recent CIA engagement underscores ongoing talks. Despite mid-April reports of Pentagon contingency planning and heightened surveillance flights, no invasion order has materialized, with traders citing high geopolitical costs, international backlash, and focus on Iran as key barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volumen
$1,976,369Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus reflects a 76% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026, as the Trump administration prioritizes economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure over military action. President Trump's May 1 Executive Order 14404 targets Cuba's military-controlled sectors, including energy and mining, exacerbating the island's fuel shortages amid a U.S. blockade, while UN experts warn of humanitarian risks. April visits by U.S. officials to Havana proposed Starlink internet access in exchange for political prisoner releases, and recent CIA engagement underscores ongoing talks. Despite mid-April reports of Pentagon contingency planning and heightened surveillance flights, no invasion order has materialized, with traders citing high geopolitical costs, international backlash, and focus on Iran as key barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$1,976,369Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 76% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Cuba in 2026, as the Trump administration prioritizes economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure over military action. President Trump's May 1 Executive Order 14404 targets Cuba's military-controlled sectors, including energy and mining, exacerbating the island's fuel shortages amid a U.S. blockade, while UN experts warn of humanitarian risks. April visits by U.S. officials to Havana proposed Starlink internet access in exchange for political prisoner releases, and recent CIA engagement underscores ongoing talks. Despite mid-April reports of Pentagon contingency planning and heightened surveillance flights, no invasion order has materialized, with traders citing high geopolitical costs, international backlash, and focus on Iran as key barriers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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