Sustained U.S. economic pressure through January 2026 executive orders imposing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers to Cuba, combined with the cutoff of Venezuelan shipments after the Maduro operation, has produced an acute fuel crisis on the island without triggering direct military action. The Trump administration has prioritized sanctions, prisoner-release demands, and backchannel talks—yielding Cuban concessions such as the freeing of over 2,000 detainees—while publicly preferring a negotiated “deal” or “friendly takeover” over invasion. Caribbean naval deployments and surveillance have increased, yet senior commanders have stated no active invasion rehearsals are underway, and U.S. forces remain engaged in the post-Iran ceasefire environment. These factors underpin trader consensus that an invasion remains improbable before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
8% probabilidad
$3,252,591 Vol.
$3,252,591 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
8% probabilidad
$3,252,591 Vol.
$3,252,591 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Sustained U.S. economic pressure through January 2026 executive orders imposing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers to Cuba, combined with the cutoff of Venezuelan shipments after the Maduro operation, has produced an acute fuel crisis on the island without triggering direct military action. The Trump administration has prioritized sanctions, prisoner-release demands, and backchannel talks—yielding Cuban concessions such as the freeing of over 2,000 detainees—while publicly preferring a negotiated “deal” or “friendly takeover” over invasion. Caribbean naval deployments and surveillance have increased, yet senior commanders have stated no active invasion rehearsals are underway, and U.S. forces remain engaged in the post-Iran ceasefire environment. These factors underpin trader consensus that an invasion remains improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volumen
$3,252,591Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Sustained U.S. economic pressure through January 2026 executive orders imposing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers to Cuba, combined with the cutoff of Venezuelan shipments after the Maduro operation, has produced an acute fuel crisis on the island without triggering direct military action. The Trump administration has prioritized sanctions, prisoner-release demands, and backchannel talks—yielding Cuban concessions such as the freeing of over 2,000 detainees—while publicly preferring a negotiated “deal” or “friendly takeover” over invasion. Caribbean naval deployments and surveillance have increased, yet senior commanders have stated no active invasion rehearsals are underway, and U.S. forces remain engaged in the post-Iran ceasefire environment. These factors underpin trader consensus that an invasion remains improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$3,252,591Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Sustained U.S. economic pressure through January 2026 executive orders imposing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers to Cuba, combined with the cutoff of Venezuelan shipments after the Maduro operation, has produced an acute fuel crisis on the island without triggering direct military action. The Trump administration has prioritized sanctions, prisoner-release demands, and backchannel talks—yielding Cuban concessions such as the freeing of over 2,000 detainees—while publicly preferring a negotiated “deal” or “friendly takeover” over invasion. Caribbean naval deployments and surveillance have increased, yet senior commanders have stated no active invasion rehearsals are underway, and U.S. forces remain engaged in the post-Iran ceasefire environment. These factors underpin trader consensus that an invasion remains improbable before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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