Recent signs of economic deceleration and moderating inflation have anchored trader expectations for a 25-basis-point Selic cut at the November Copom meeting, with market-implied odds at 67.5%. The central bank lowered the policy rate to 13.75% in September amid weaker activity data and a trimmed 2026 GDP forecast, while its reference-scenario inflation projection for the first quarter of 2028 held near 3.2%. Focus survey economists revised their year-end 2026 Selic median to 13.50%, reflecting one additional quarter-point move. Persistent upside risks—including above-target 2026 inflation expectations near 4.9%, potential exchange-rate volatility after the October presidential election, and El Niño effects—support the 27.5% probability priced for no change, keeping the decision data-dependent.