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icon for B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner
Politics·BC

B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner

icon for B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner
Politics·BC

B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner

Caroline Elliott 32%

Aaron Gunn 20%

Claire Rattée 16%

Iain Black 13%

Polymarket
NEW

Caroline Elliott 32%

Aaron Gunn 20%

Claire Rattée 16%

Iain Black 13%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Caroline Elliott

Caroline Elliott

$59 Vol.

32%

icon for Aaron Gunn

Aaron Gunn

$45 Vol.

30%

icon for Claire Rattée

Claire Rattée

$42 Vol.

16%

icon for Iain Black

Iain Black

$0 Vol.

13%

icon for Yuri Fulmer

Yuri Fulmer

$16 Vol.

13%

icon for Sheldon Clare

Sheldon Clare

$0 Vol.

13%

icon for Stockwell Day

Stockwell Day

$55 Vol.

7%

icon for Chip Wilson

Chip Wilson

$178 Vol.

3%

A leadership election for the Conservative Party of British Columbia is expected following the resignation of Kerry-Lynne Findlay as party leader on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Conservative Party of British Columbia.The BC Conservative leadership race remains tightly contested among a broad field, with trader prices reflecting deep uncertainty after Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s narrow May 2026 victory and her subsequent resignation amid mass caucus defections. Recent turmoil—including the formation of CentreBC by defectors such as Peter Milobar, expulsions, and ongoing unity negotiations—has fragmented support and elevated questions of electability, ideological balance, and the ability to consolidate the right ahead of a possible snap election. Caroline Elliott and Aaron Gunn lead implied probabilities among named contenders due to their established profiles and regional bases, while lower-priced options like Claire Rattée, Iain Black, Yuri Fulmer, Sheldon Clare, and Stockwell Day draw from distinct factions or past roles. Developments such as interim leadership under Lorne Doerkson, readmissions of former MLAs, and cross-party talks could shift probabilities by clarifying viable paths to unification or exposing persistent divisions.

A leadership election for the Conservative Party of British Columbia is expected following the resignation of Kerry-Lynne Findlay as party leader on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Conservative Party of British Columbia.A leadership election for the Conservative Party of British Columbia is expected following the resignation of Kerry-Lynne Findlay as party leader on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Conservative Party of British Columbia.
Volume
$395
End Date
Dec 31, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A leadership election for the Conservative Party of British Columbia is expected following the resignation of Kerry-Lynne Findlay as party leader on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Conservative Party of British Columbia.The BC Conservative leadership race remains tightly contested among a broad field, with trader prices reflecting deep uncertainty after Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s narrow May 2026 victory and her subsequent resignation amid mass caucus defections. Recent turmoil—including the formation of CentreBC by defectors such as Peter Milobar, expulsions, and ongoing unity negotiations—has fragmented support and elevated questions of electability, ideological balance, and the ability to consolidate the right ahead of a possible snap election. Caroline Elliott and Aaron Gunn lead implied probabilities among named contenders due to their established profiles and regional bases, while lower-priced options like Claire Rattée, Iain Black, Yuri Fulmer, Sheldon Clare, and Stockwell Day draw from distinct factions or past roles. Developments such as interim leadership under Lorne Doerkson, readmissions of former MLAs, and cross-party talks could shift probabilities by clarifying viable paths to unification or exposing persistent divisions.

A leadership election for the Conservative Party of British Columbia is expected following the resignation of Kerry-Lynne Findlay as party leader on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Conservative Party of British Columbia.A leadership election for the Conservative Party of British Columbia is expected following the resignation of Kerry-Lynne Findlay as party leader on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Conservative Party of British Columbia.
Volume
$395
End Date
Dec 31, 2027
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Caroline Elliott" at 33%, followed by "Aaron Gunn" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner" is "Caroline Elliott" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Aaron Gunn" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.