Discord’s confidential January 2026 SEC filing and engagement of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have not progressed to a public S-1 as of September 2026, shifting the base case for an IPO into 2027 amid valuation compression from the 2021 $15 billion peak to roughly $8.5 billion on Forge Global secondaries. Traders assign a 63.4% implied probability to no listing by December 31, 2027, reflecting extended SEC review timelines, softer multiples for consumer platforms, and roughly $600–900 million in annualized revenue with slower monetization progress. If an IPO occurs within the window, the 8–11 billion closing market-cap bracket leads at 12.5% implied probability, aligning with current private-market indications and comparable consumer subscription multiples. Key upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release or shifts in equity-market sentiment for tech names.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by December 31, 2027 62.9%
8–11B 12.5%
11–14B 11.1%
20B+ 5.8%
$106,200 Vol.
$106,200 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<5B
2%
5–8B
2%
8–11B
13%
11–14B
11%
14–17B
5%
17–20B
4%
20B+
6%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
63%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 62.9%
8–11B 12.5%
11–14B 11.1%
20B+ 5.8%
$106,200 Vol.
$106,200 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<5B
$16,726 Vol.
2%
5–8B
$5,451 Vol.
2%
8–11B
$14,903 Vol.
13%
11–14B
$14,295 Vol.
11%
14–17B
$3,478 Vol.
5%
17–20B
$5,877 Vol.
4%
20B+
$5,597 Vol.
6%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$39,873 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Discord’s confidential January 2026 SEC filing and engagement of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have not progressed to a public S-1 as of September 2026, shifting the base case for an IPO into 2027 amid valuation compression from the 2021 $15 billion peak to roughly $8.5 billion on Forge Global secondaries. Traders assign a 63.4% implied probability to no listing by December 31, 2027, reflecting extended SEC review timelines, softer multiples for consumer platforms, and roughly $600–900 million in annualized revenue with slower monetization progress. If an IPO occurs within the window, the 8–11 billion closing market-cap bracket leads at 12.5% implied probability, aligning with current private-market indications and comparable consumer subscription multiples. Key upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release or shifts in equity-market sentiment for tech names.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$106,200End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Discord’s confidential January 2026 SEC filing and engagement of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have not progressed to a public S-1 as of September 2026, shifting the base case for an IPO into 2027 amid valuation compression from the 2021 $15 billion peak to roughly $8.5 billion on Forge Global secondaries. Traders assign a 63.4% implied probability to no listing by December 31, 2027, reflecting extended SEC review timelines, softer multiples for consumer platforms, and roughly $600–900 million in annualized revenue with slower monetization progress. If an IPO occurs within the window, the 8–11 billion closing market-cap bracket leads at 12.5% implied probability, aligning with current private-market indications and comparable consumer subscription multiples. Key upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release or shifts in equity-market sentiment for tech names.
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$106,200End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Discord’s confidential January 2026 SEC filing and engagement of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have not progressed to a public S-1 as of September 2026, shifting the base case for an IPO into 2027 amid valuation compression from the 2021 $15 billion peak to roughly $8.5 billion on Forge Global secondaries. Traders assign a 63.4% implied probability to no listing by December 31, 2027, reflecting extended SEC review timelines, softer multiples for consumer platforms, and roughly $600–900 million in annualized revenue with slower monetization progress. If an IPO occurs within the window, the 8–11 billion closing market-cap bracket leads at 12.5% implied probability, aligning with current private-market indications and comparable consumer subscription multiples. Key upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release or shifts in equity-market sentiment for tech names.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions