Elon Musk’s posting pace on X during the September 8–15 window settled at 186 posts, locking the 180-199 bracket at 100% implied probability. Traders converged on this outcome because recent weekly totals have clustered in the low-to-mid 100s to low 200s during periods of steady commentary on Tesla updates, platform developments, and political topics, without the extreme spikes or multi-day lulls seen in other 2026 brackets. A daily rhythm near 25–30 posts aligned closely with observed patterns in quieter stretches, and live trackers confirmed the count stayed within the narrow band as the period closed. An upset would have required either a sharp acceleration from breaking news or a near-total slowdown, neither of which occurred.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated180-199 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$2,402,235 Vol.
$2,402,235 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
No
60-79
No
80-99
No
100-119
No
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
Yes
200-219
No
220-239
No
240-259
No
260-279
No
280-299
No
300-319
No
320-339
No
340-359
No
360-379
No
380-399
No
400-419
No
420-439
No
440-459
No
460-479
No
480-499
No
500+
No
180-199 100.0%
<20 <1%
20-39 <1%
40-59 <1%
$2,402,235 Vol.
$2,402,235 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
<20
$1,340 Vol.
No
20-39
$1,227 Vol.
No
40-59
$2,810 Vol.
No
60-79
$16,141 Vol.
No
80-99
$127,425 Vol.
No
100-119
$169,705 Vol.
No
120-139
$210,422 Vol.
No
140-159
$211,164 Vol.
No
160-179
$273,971 Vol.
No
180-199
$270,739 Vol.
Yes
200-219
$313,850 Vol.
No
220-239
$211,564 Vol.
No
240-259
$153,573 Vol.
No
260-279
$89,329 Vol.
No
280-299
$72,529 Vol.
No
300-319
$65,208 Vol.
No
320-339
$39,181 Vol.
No
340-359
$30,620 Vol.
No
360-379
$30,099 Vol.
No
380-399
$20,993 Vol.
No
400-419
$21,161 Vol.
No
420-439
$6,123 Vol.
No
440-459
$2,893 Vol.
No
460-479
$1,900 Vol.
No
480-499
$3,583 Vol.
No
500+
$54,686 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s posting pace on X during the September 8–15 window settled at 186 posts, locking the 180-199 bracket at 100% implied probability. Traders converged on this outcome because recent weekly totals have clustered in the low-to-mid 100s to low 200s during periods of steady commentary on Tesla updates, platform developments, and political topics, without the extreme spikes or multi-day lulls seen in other 2026 brackets. A daily rhythm near 25–30 posts aligned closely with observed patterns in quieter stretches, and live trackers confirmed the count stayed within the narrow band as the period closed. An upset would have required either a sharp acceleration from breaking news or a near-total slowdown, neither of which occurred.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$2,402,235End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s posting pace on X during the September 8–15 window settled at 186 posts, locking the 180-199 bracket at 100% implied probability. Traders converged on this outcome because recent weekly totals have clustered in the low-to-mid 100s to low 200s during periods of steady commentary on Tesla updates, platform developments, and political topics, without the extreme spikes or multi-day lulls seen in other 2026 brackets. A daily rhythm near 25–30 posts aligned closely with observed patterns in quieter stretches, and live trackers confirmed the count stayed within the narrow band as the period closed. An upset would have required either a sharp acceleration from breaking news or a near-total slowdown, neither of which occurred.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$2,402,235End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Elon Musk’s posting pace on X during the September 8–15 window settled at 186 posts, locking the 180-199 bracket at 100% implied probability. Traders converged on this outcome because recent weekly totals have clustered in the low-to-mid 100s to low 200s during periods of steady commentary on Tesla updates, platform developments, and political topics, without the extreme spikes or multi-day lulls seen in other 2026 brackets. A daily rhythm near 25–30 posts aligned closely with observed patterns in quieter stretches, and live trackers confirmed the count stayed within the narrow band as the period closed. An upset would have required either a sharp acceleration from breaking news or a near-total slowdown, neither of which occurred.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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