Erdoğan's current presidential term, secured in the 2023 election, runs until 2028 under Turkey's constitution, with no national elections or referendums scheduled before then and no successful challenges to his position emerging in 2025 or 2026. Traders assign the "No" outcome a 95.5% implied probability because the ruling AKP maintains parliamentary control and institutional levers that have sustained continuity despite periodic opposition calls for early votes. Recent reports of age-related health observations have fueled succession speculation but lack official confirmation of incapacity that would trigger removal mechanisms. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden medical event, major corruption revelations prompting resignation, or an unforeseen constitutional amendment enabling snap elections could still alter timelines, though these remain low-probability paths given the absence of active triggers.