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Geopolitics·Greta

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

icon for Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?
Geopolitics·Greta

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

38% chance
Polymarket

$150,009 Vol.

38% chance
Polymarket

$150,009 Vol.

A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any vessel which is part of this flotilla enters Israel’s territorial sea by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Israel’s territorial sea includes the territorial waters off the coast of Gaza that are controlled by Israel. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Israel maintains its naval blockade of Gaza through consistent interceptions of civilian vessels attempting to reach the territory, as demonstrated by the April 30, 2026, boarding of over 20 boats from the Global Sumud Flotilla in international waters near Crete. Subsequent regrouped missions, including departures from Turkey on May 14 and Greece on May 13, continue to test the blockade amid ongoing diplomatic and security measures. These enforcement patterns, combined with the time required for vessels to cover the remaining distance, underpin trader consensus that entry into Israeli waters remains unlikely by the May 31 resolution date, reflecting repeated historical outcomes in similar efforts.

A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any vessel which is part of this flotilla enters Israel’s territorial sea by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, Israel’s territorial sea includes the territorial waters off the coast of Gaza that are controlled by Israel.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$150,009
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 3:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any vessel which is part of this flotilla enters Israel’s territorial sea by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Israel’s territorial sea includes the territorial waters off the coast of Gaza that are controlled by Israel. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any vessel which is part of this flotilla enters Israel’s territorial sea by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Israel’s territorial sea includes the territorial waters off the coast of Gaza that are controlled by Israel. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Israel maintains its naval blockade of Gaza through consistent interceptions of civilian vessels attempting to reach the territory, as demonstrated by the April 30, 2026, boarding of over 20 boats from the Global Sumud Flotilla in international waters near Crete. Subsequent regrouped missions, including departures from Turkey on May 14 and Greece on May 13, continue to test the blockade amid ongoing diplomatic and security measures. These enforcement patterns, combined with the time required for vessels to cover the remaining distance, underpin trader consensus that entry into Israeli waters remains unlikely by the May 31 resolution date, reflecting repeated historical outcomes in similar efforts.

A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any vessel which is part of this flotilla enters Israel’s territorial sea by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, Israel’s territorial sea includes the territorial waters off the coast of Gaza that are controlled by Israel.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$150,009
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 3:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
A flotilla organized by the Global Sumud Flotilla, among others, set sail from Spain on April 15, 2026 to deliver aid to Gaza (see: https://apnews.com/article/global-sumud-flotilla-gaza-aid-spain-israel-94b09412fdcb1a0fd6a6e0c981479539). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any vessel which is part of this flotilla enters Israel’s territorial sea by May 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Israel’s territorial sea includes the territorial waters off the coast of Gaza that are controlled by Israel. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 38% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 38¢, the market collectively assigns a 38% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?" has generated $150K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?" is 38% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 38% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.