Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven primarily by the kickoff of Google I/O that day—a venue historically used for major AI announcements like prior Gemini updates. Recent leaks, including brief sightings of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app's staging environment and API logs, plus Google's May 13 teaser post hinting at breakthroughs, have solidified this positioning following the May 7 rollout of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect strong expectations of competitive pressure from rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI, realistic challenges include last-minute safety reviews, technical delays, or a surprise version skip, potentially shifting odds toward later dates or no release by May 31. Google I/O sessions through May 20 remain key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMay 19 92%
May 20 3.1%
May 22 1.6%
May 18 1.3%
$175,719 Vol.
$175,719 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 12
<1%
May 13
<1%
May 14
1%
May 15
<1%
May 16
<1%
May 17
1%
May 18
1%
May 19
92%
May 20
3%
May 21
1%
May 22
2%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
1%
May 26
1%
May 27
1%
May 28
1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 92%
May 20 3.1%
May 22 1.6%
May 18 1.3%
$175,719 Vol.
$175,719 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 12
$7,718 Vol.
<1%
May 13
$3,363 Vol.
<1%
May 14
$3,765 Vol.
1%
May 15
$6,861 Vol.
<1%
May 16
$5,577 Vol.
<1%
May 17
$6,343 Vol.
1%
May 18
$16,029 Vol.
1%
May 19
$45,305 Vol.
92%
May 20
$11,690 Vol.
3%
May 21
$7,129 Vol.
1%
May 22
$9,133 Vol.
2%
May 23
$3,069 Vol.
<1%
May 24
$3,950 Vol.
<1%
May 25
$2,127 Vol.
1%
May 26
$2,787 Vol.
1%
May 27
$2,325 Vol.
1%
May 28
$2,001 Vol.
1%
May 29
$1,595 Vol.
<1%
May 30
$3,689 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$3,568 Vol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$8,943 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven primarily by the kickoff of Google I/O that day—a venue historically used for major AI announcements like prior Gemini updates. Recent leaks, including brief sightings of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app's staging environment and API logs, plus Google's May 13 teaser post hinting at breakthroughs, have solidified this positioning following the May 7 rollout of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect strong expectations of competitive pressure from rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI, realistic challenges include last-minute safety reviews, technical delays, or a surprise version skip, potentially shifting odds toward later dates or no release by May 31. Google I/O sessions through May 20 remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volume
$175,719End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven primarily by the kickoff of Google I/O that day—a venue historically used for major AI announcements like prior Gemini updates. Recent leaks, including brief sightings of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app's staging environment and API logs, plus Google's May 13 teaser post hinting at breakthroughs, have solidified this positioning following the May 7 rollout of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect strong expectations of competitive pressure from rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI, realistic challenges include last-minute safety reviews, technical delays, or a surprise version skip, potentially shifting odds toward later dates or no release by May 31. Google I/O sessions through May 20 remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$175,719End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model releasing on May 19, driven primarily by the kickoff of Google I/O that day—a venue historically used for major AI announcements like prior Gemini updates. Recent leaks, including brief sightings of Gemini 3.2 Flash in the Gemini app's staging environment and API logs, plus Google's May 13 teaser post hinting at breakthroughs, have solidified this positioning following the May 7 rollout of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite. While skin-in-the-game bets reflect strong expectations of competitive pressure from rivals like Anthropic and OpenAI, realistic challenges include last-minute safety reviews, technical delays, or a surprise version skip, potentially shifting odds toward later dates or no release by May 31. Google I/O sessions through May 20 remain key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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