Traders' overwhelming consensus for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19 (91.5% implied probability) reflects recent leaks confirming the model's appearance in Gemini app model selectors and iOS builds as of May 5, paired with Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian's May 9 remark on a new version arriving "very, very soon." These developments, timed with Google I/O starting May 19, signal trader confidence in an on-stage debut and initial rollout, bolstering Gemini's competitive edge in large language model reasoning and tool calling against rivals like GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus. Realistic challenges include common AI deployment delays from final testing or safety checks, potentially slipping to May 20 amid event hype.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMay 19 92%
May 20 4.5%
May 16 3.0%
May 22 1.5%
$175,020 Vol.
$175,020 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 12
<1%
May 13
<1%
May 14
1%
May 15
1%
May 16
3%
May 17
1%
May 18
1%
May 19
92%
May 20
5%
May 21
1%
May 22
2%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
1%
May 26
1%
May 27
1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 92%
May 20 4.5%
May 16 3.0%
May 22 1.5%
$175,020 Vol.
$175,020 Vol.
May 31, 2026
May 12
$7,718 Vol.
<1%
May 13
$3,363 Vol.
<1%
May 14
$3,765 Vol.
1%
May 15
$6,861 Vol.
1%
May 16
$5,543 Vol.
3%
May 17
$6,337 Vol.
1%
May 18
$15,873 Vol.
1%
May 19
$45,182 Vol.
92%
May 20
$11,534 Vol.
5%
May 21
$7,034 Vol.
1%
May 22
$9,025 Vol.
2%
May 23
$3,069 Vol.
<1%
May 24
$3,950 Vol.
<1%
May 25
$2,127 Vol.
1%
May 26
$2,787 Vol.
1%
May 27
$2,325 Vol.
1%
May 28
$2,001 Vol.
<1%
May 29
$1,595 Vol.
<1%
May 30
$3,689 Vol.
<1%
May 31
$3,568 Vol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$8,943 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders' overwhelming consensus for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19 (91.5% implied probability) reflects recent leaks confirming the model's appearance in Gemini app model selectors and iOS builds as of May 5, paired with Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian's May 9 remark on a new version arriving "very, very soon." These developments, timed with Google I/O starting May 19, signal trader confidence in an on-stage debut and initial rollout, bolstering Gemini's competitive edge in large language model reasoning and tool calling against rivals like GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus. Realistic challenges include common AI deployment delays from final testing or safety checks, potentially slipping to May 20 amid event hype.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volume
$175,020End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders' overwhelming consensus for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19 (91.5% implied probability) reflects recent leaks confirming the model's appearance in Gemini app model selectors and iOS builds as of May 5, paired with Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian's May 9 remark on a new version arriving "very, very soon." These developments, timed with Google I/O starting May 19, signal trader confidence in an on-stage debut and initial rollout, bolstering Gemini's competitive edge in large language model reasoning and tool calling against rivals like GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus. Realistic challenges include common AI deployment delays from final testing or safety checks, potentially slipping to May 20 amid event hype.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$175,020End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders' overwhelming consensus for a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19 (91.5% implied probability) reflects recent leaks confirming the model's appearance in Gemini app model selectors and iOS builds as of May 5, paired with Google Cloud CEO Thomas Kurian's May 9 remark on a new version arriving "very, very soon." These developments, timed with Google I/O starting May 19, signal trader confidence in an on-stage debut and initial rollout, bolstering Gemini's competitive edge in large language model reasoning and tool calling against rivals like GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus. Realistic challenges include common AI deployment delays from final testing or safety checks, potentially slipping to May 20 amid event hype.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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