Recent short-range model guidance from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles places the peak temperature in Ankara on August 20 near 31–32 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds that favor strong daytime heating over the Anatolian plateau. The near-even split between these two outcomes in trader pricing reflects typical ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and slight differences in advected air masses, with 33 °C or higher requiring stronger insolation or reduced cloud interference that current runs do not strongly support. Historical August maxima average around 32 °C, providing a baseline against which the current stable synoptic pattern is evaluated, while the low probabilities assigned to extremes underscore limited potential for rapid changes before the observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on August 20?
Highest temperature in Ankara on August 20?
32°C 44%
31°C 41%
30°C 9%
33°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
9%
31°C
41%
32°C
44%
33°C
7%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
32°C 44%
31°C 41%
30°C 9%
33°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
25°C or below
$191 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$157 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$63 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$48 Vol.
1%
29°C
$44 Vol.
2%
30°C
$221 Vol.
9%
31°C
$49 Vol.
41%
32°C
$117 Vol.
44%
33°C
$179 Vol.
7%
34°C
$39 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles places the peak temperature in Ankara on August 20 near 31–32 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds that favor strong daytime heating over the Anatolian plateau. The near-even split between these two outcomes in trader pricing reflects typical ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and slight differences in advected air masses, with 33 °C or higher requiring stronger insolation or reduced cloud interference that current runs do not strongly support. Historical August maxima average around 32 °C, providing a baseline against which the current stable synoptic pattern is evaluated, while the low probabilities assigned to extremes underscore limited potential for rapid changes before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,118End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles places the peak temperature in Ankara on August 20 near 31–32 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds that favor strong daytime heating over the Anatolian plateau. The near-even split between these two outcomes in trader pricing reflects typical ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and slight differences in advected air masses, with 33 °C or higher requiring stronger insolation or reduced cloud interference that current runs do not strongly support. Historical August maxima average around 32 °C, providing a baseline against which the current stable synoptic pattern is evaluated, while the low probabilities assigned to extremes underscore limited potential for rapid changes before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,118End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model guidance from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global ensembles places the peak temperature in Ankara on August 20 near 31–32 °C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds that favor strong daytime heating over the Anatolian plateau. The near-even split between these two outcomes in trader pricing reflects typical ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and slight differences in advected air masses, with 33 °C or higher requiring stronger insolation or reduced cloud interference that current runs do not strongly support. Historical August maxima average around 32 °C, providing a baseline against which the current stable synoptic pattern is evaluated, while the low probabilities assigned to extremes underscore limited potential for rapid changes before the observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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