Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus indicate persistent high-pressure ridging over Central Texas, supporting sunny, dry conditions and daily highs near 103–106°F through August 23. This pattern aligns with the market's leading 104–105°F bin at 53% implied probability, followed by 106–107°F at 31.5%, as August climatology favors peak heat before seasonal cooling begins. Minor model spread on afternoon mixing and dew points creates the secondary 102–103°F chance at 16%, while historical Austin August extremes rarely exceed 107°F without stronger tropical moisture. Updated NHC and NOAA guidance ahead of the date will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 23?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 23?
104-105°F 54%
106-107°F 32%
102-103°F 16%
100-101°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
1%
100-101°F
5%
102-103°F
16%
104-105°F
54%
106-107°F
32%
108-109°F
3%
110-111°F
1%
112-113°F
2%
114°F or higher
1%
104-105°F 54%
106-107°F 32%
102-103°F 16%
100-101°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
95°F or below
$80 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$87 Vol.
1%
98-99°F
$26 Vol.
1%
100-101°F
$9 Vol.
5%
102-103°F
$64 Vol.
16%
104-105°F
$145 Vol.
54%
106-107°F
$65 Vol.
32%
108-109°F
$22 Vol.
3%
110-111°F
$22 Vol.
1%
112-113°F
$26 Vol.
2%
114°F or higher
$18 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus indicate persistent high-pressure ridging over Central Texas, supporting sunny, dry conditions and daily highs near 103–106°F through August 23. This pattern aligns with the market's leading 104–105°F bin at 53% implied probability, followed by 106–107°F at 31.5%, as August climatology favors peak heat before seasonal cooling begins. Minor model spread on afternoon mixing and dew points creates the secondary 102–103°F chance at 16%, while historical Austin August extremes rarely exceed 107°F without stronger tropical moisture. Updated NHC and NOAA guidance ahead of the date will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$563End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus indicate persistent high-pressure ridging over Central Texas, supporting sunny, dry conditions and daily highs near 103–106°F through August 23. This pattern aligns with the market's leading 104–105°F bin at 53% implied probability, followed by 106–107°F at 31.5%, as August climatology favors peak heat before seasonal cooling begins. Minor model spread on afternoon mixing and dew points creates the secondary 102–103°F chance at 16%, while historical Austin August extremes rarely exceed 107°F without stronger tropical moisture. Updated NHC and NOAA guidance ahead of the date will refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$563End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus indicate persistent high-pressure ridging over Central Texas, supporting sunny, dry conditions and daily highs near 103–106°F through August 23. This pattern aligns with the market's leading 104–105°F bin at 53% implied probability, followed by 106–107°F at 31.5%, as August climatology favors peak heat before seasonal cooling begins. Minor model spread on afternoon mixing and dew points creates the secondary 102–103°F chance at 16%, while historical Austin August extremes rarely exceed 107°F without stronger tropical moisture. Updated NHC and NOAA guidance ahead of the date will refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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