Persistent heatwave conditions across Central Texas, reinforced by a warmer-than-normal August outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, position 104-105°F as the leading outcome for Austin's highest temperature on August 24. National Weather Service forecasts and recent model runs indicate sunny skies, light winds, and surface highs near 102-106°F, consistent with ongoing extreme heat advisories and daily maxima observed in the 103-105°F range. Subsidence under high pressure and strong solar insolation drive these elevated readings, with limited moisture or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. Traders weigh the narrow window for 106°F+ intensification against typical late-August climatology favoring mid-100s peaks before any potential tropical influences later in the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 24?
104-105°F 55%
102-103°F 31%
106-107°F 11%
100-101°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
2%
100-101°F
4%
102-103°F
31%
104-105°F
55%
106-107°F
11%
108-109°F
3%
110-111°F
1%
112-113°F
1%
114°F or higher
<1%
104-105°F 55%
102-103°F 31%
106-107°F 11%
100-101°F 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
$65 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$153 Vol.
1%
98-99°F
$117 Vol.
2%
100-101°F
$282 Vol.
4%
102-103°F
$614 Vol.
31%
104-105°F
$1,336 Vol.
55%
106-107°F
$179 Vol.
11%
108-109°F
$124 Vol.
3%
110-111°F
$134 Vol.
1%
112-113°F
$104 Vol.
1%
114°F or higher
$87 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heatwave conditions across Central Texas, reinforced by a warmer-than-normal August outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, position 104-105°F as the leading outcome for Austin's highest temperature on August 24. National Weather Service forecasts and recent model runs indicate sunny skies, light winds, and surface highs near 102-106°F, consistent with ongoing extreme heat advisories and daily maxima observed in the 103-105°F range. Subsidence under high pressure and strong solar insolation drive these elevated readings, with limited moisture or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. Traders weigh the narrow window for 106°F+ intensification against typical late-August climatology favoring mid-100s peaks before any potential tropical influences later in the month.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$3,197End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heatwave conditions across Central Texas, reinforced by a warmer-than-normal August outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, position 104-105°F as the leading outcome for Austin's highest temperature on August 24. National Weather Service forecasts and recent model runs indicate sunny skies, light winds, and surface highs near 102-106°F, consistent with ongoing extreme heat advisories and daily maxima observed in the 103-105°F range. Subsidence under high pressure and strong solar insolation drive these elevated readings, with limited moisture or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. Traders weigh the narrow window for 106°F+ intensification against typical late-August climatology favoring mid-100s peaks before any potential tropical influences later in the month.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,197End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heatwave conditions across Central Texas, reinforced by a warmer-than-normal August outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, position 104-105°F as the leading outcome for Austin's highest temperature on August 24. National Weather Service forecasts and recent model runs indicate sunny skies, light winds, and surface highs near 102-106°F, consistent with ongoing extreme heat advisories and daily maxima observed in the 103-105°F range. Subsidence under high pressure and strong solar insolation drive these elevated readings, with limited moisture or cloud cover to moderate temperatures. Traders weigh the narrow window for 106°F+ intensification against typical late-August climatology favoring mid-100s peaks before any potential tropical influences later in the month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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