Forecast models from the National Weather Service and major ensembles currently indicate a high of 84–87°F in Denver on August 26, 2026, supporting the market’s tight clustering around those bins as traders weigh the most probable outcomes. Key drivers include a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies, combined with Denver’s high-elevation diurnal range that amplifies daytime heating under low humidity and light downslope flow. Recent model runs show modest spread in maximum temperatures due to small differences in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover, with some solutions allowing brief convective development that could cap the high near 84°F while others keep skies clear for readings near 88°F. Historical late-August climatology for the Front Range places the average daily maximum around 85°F, providing a baseline that aligns with current consensus and explains why lower or higher bins carry limited probability. Updated short-range guidance expected this evening will likely refine the exact peak and influence any further market movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Denver on August 26?
Highest temperature in Denver on August 26?
86-87°F 36%
84-85°F 27%
88-89°F 20%
82-83°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
4%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
27%
86-87°F
36%
88-89°F
20%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
5%
94°F or higher
2%
86-87°F 36%
84-85°F 27%
88-89°F 20%
82-83°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
75°F or below
$149 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
4%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
4%
80-81°F
$5 Vol.
6%
82-83°F
$64 Vol.
14%
84-85°F
$19 Vol.
27%
86-87°F
$97 Vol.
36%
88-89°F
$120 Vol.
20%
90-91°F
$105 Vol.
5%
92-93°F
$40 Vol.
5%
94°F or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and major ensembles currently indicate a high of 84–87°F in Denver on August 26, 2026, supporting the market’s tight clustering around those bins as traders weigh the most probable outcomes. Key drivers include a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies, combined with Denver’s high-elevation diurnal range that amplifies daytime heating under low humidity and light downslope flow. Recent model runs show modest spread in maximum temperatures due to small differences in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover, with some solutions allowing brief convective development that could cap the high near 84°F while others keep skies clear for readings near 88°F. Historical late-August climatology for the Front Range places the average daily maximum around 85°F, providing a baseline that aligns with current consensus and explains why lower or higher bins carry limited probability. Updated short-range guidance expected this evening will likely refine the exact peak and influence any further market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$599End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkfResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and major ensembles currently indicate a high of 84–87°F in Denver on August 26, 2026, supporting the market’s tight clustering around those bins as traders weigh the most probable outcomes. Key drivers include a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies, combined with Denver’s high-elevation diurnal range that amplifies daytime heating under low humidity and light downslope flow. Recent model runs show modest spread in maximum temperatures due to small differences in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover, with some solutions allowing brief convective development that could cap the high near 84°F while others keep skies clear for readings near 88°F. Historical late-August climatology for the Front Range places the average daily maximum around 85°F, providing a baseline that aligns with current consensus and explains why lower or higher bins carry limited probability. Updated short-range guidance expected this evening will likely refine the exact peak and influence any further market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$599End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkfResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and major ensembles currently indicate a high of 84–87°F in Denver on August 26, 2026, supporting the market’s tight clustering around those bins as traders weigh the most probable outcomes. Key drivers include a persistent upper-level ridge promoting subsidence and clear skies, combined with Denver’s high-elevation diurnal range that amplifies daytime heating under low humidity and light downslope flow. Recent model runs show modest spread in maximum temperatures due to small differences in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud cover, with some solutions allowing brief convective development that could cap the high near 84°F while others keep skies clear for readings near 88°F. Historical late-August climatology for the Front Range places the average daily maximum around 85°F, providing a baseline that aligns with current consensus and explains why lower or higher bins carry limited probability. Updated short-range guidance expected this evening will likely refine the exact peak and influence any further market movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions