Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Istanbul's maximum temperature on August 24 will likely fall in the 27–29°C range, driven by persistent high-pressure conditions, light northerly flow, and moderating influences from the Sea of Marmara that limit daytime heating. Recent model runs show minor spreads in predicted 850 hPa temperatures and boundary-layer moisture, with sea breezes and urban heat island effects creating the key variables that differentiate exact daily maxima at official stations. Historical August climatology places average highs near 28–30°C, but the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 27–28°C reflects ongoing uncertainty in mesoscale details ahead of final observational data. Updated short-range guidance from regional meteorological services will provide the next resolution-critical inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 24?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 24?
28°C 42%
27°C 31%
29°C 23%
26°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
4%
24°C
4%
25°C
3%
26°C
6%
27°C
31%
28°C
42%
29°C
23%
30°C
3%
31°C
3%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
4%
28°C 42%
27°C 31%
29°C 23%
26°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
$5 Vol.
4%
24°C
$5 Vol.
4%
25°C
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C
$54 Vol.
6%
27°C
$150 Vol.
31%
28°C
$23 Vol.
42%
29°C
$0 Vol.
23%
30°C
$0 Vol.
3%
31°C
$1 Vol.
3%
32°C
$5 Vol.
4%
33°C or higher
$5 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Istanbul's maximum temperature on August 24 will likely fall in the 27–29°C range, driven by persistent high-pressure conditions, light northerly flow, and moderating influences from the Sea of Marmara that limit daytime heating. Recent model runs show minor spreads in predicted 850 hPa temperatures and boundary-layer moisture, with sea breezes and urban heat island effects creating the key variables that differentiate exact daily maxima at official stations. Historical August climatology places average highs near 28–30°C, but the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 27–28°C reflects ongoing uncertainty in mesoscale details ahead of final observational data. Updated short-range guidance from regional meteorological services will provide the next resolution-critical inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:57 AM ET
Volume
$248End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Istanbul's maximum temperature on August 24 will likely fall in the 27–29°C range, driven by persistent high-pressure conditions, light northerly flow, and moderating influences from the Sea of Marmara that limit daytime heating. Recent model runs show minor spreads in predicted 850 hPa temperatures and boundary-layer moisture, with sea breezes and urban heat island effects creating the key variables that differentiate exact daily maxima at official stations. Historical August climatology places average highs near 28–30°C, but the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 27–28°C reflects ongoing uncertainty in mesoscale details ahead of final observational data. Updated short-range guidance from regional meteorological services will provide the next resolution-critical inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$248End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models indicate Istanbul's maximum temperature on August 24 will likely fall in the 27–29°C range, driven by persistent high-pressure conditions, light northerly flow, and moderating influences from the Sea of Marmara that limit daytime heating. Recent model runs show minor spreads in predicted 850 hPa temperatures and boundary-layer moisture, with sea breezes and urban heat island effects creating the key variables that differentiate exact daily maxima at official stations. Historical August climatology places average highs near 28–30°C, but the tight clustering of trader-implied odds around 27–28°C reflects ongoing uncertainty in mesoscale details ahead of final observational data. Updated short-range guidance from regional meteorological services will provide the next resolution-critical inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions