Recent AEMET and European model guidance for Madrid point to a maximum of 33–34 °C on August 4 under persistent high pressure and northwesterly flow that limits stronger heat advection from North Africa. These conditions align with the market’s heavy weighting on 34 °C (53.5 %), followed by 33 °C (23.5 %) and 35 °C (18.5 %). Earlier 2026 heatwaves produced 40–45 °C peaks, yet current steering patterns and dew-point forecasts suggest moderation relative to July extremes. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours, plus any shift in the subtropical ridge, remain the key variables that could move the distribution toward or away from the 34–35 °C cluster before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 4?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 4?
34°C 53%
33°C 35%
35°C 14%
31°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
5%
32°C
3%
33°C
35%
34°C
53%
35°C
14%
36°C
4%
37°C
2%
38°C
2%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 53%
33°C 35%
35°C 14%
31°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
29°C or below
$56 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$20 Vol.
1%
31°C
$20 Vol.
5%
32°C
$56 Vol.
3%
33°C
$254 Vol.
35%
34°C
$322 Vol.
53%
35°C
$217 Vol.
14%
36°C
$95 Vol.
4%
37°C
$115 Vol.
2%
38°C
$65 Vol.
2%
39°C or higher
$293 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and European model guidance for Madrid point to a maximum of 33–34 °C on August 4 under persistent high pressure and northwesterly flow that limits stronger heat advection from North Africa. These conditions align with the market’s heavy weighting on 34 °C (53.5 %), followed by 33 °C (23.5 %) and 35 °C (18.5 %). Earlier 2026 heatwaves produced 40–45 °C peaks, yet current steering patterns and dew-point forecasts suggest moderation relative to July extremes. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours, plus any shift in the subtropical ridge, remain the key variables that could move the distribution toward or away from the 34–35 °C cluster before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$1,513End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET and European model guidance for Madrid point to a maximum of 33–34 °C on August 4 under persistent high pressure and northwesterly flow that limits stronger heat advection from North Africa. These conditions align with the market’s heavy weighting on 34 °C (53.5 %), followed by 33 °C (23.5 %) and 35 °C (18.5 %). Earlier 2026 heatwaves produced 40–45 °C peaks, yet current steering patterns and dew-point forecasts suggest moderation relative to July extremes. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours, plus any shift in the subtropical ridge, remain the key variables that could move the distribution toward or away from the 34–35 °C cluster before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,513End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET and European model guidance for Madrid point to a maximum of 33–34 °C on August 4 under persistent high pressure and northwesterly flow that limits stronger heat advection from North Africa. These conditions align with the market’s heavy weighting on 34 °C (53.5 %), followed by 33 °C (23.5 %) and 35 °C (18.5 %). Earlier 2026 heatwaves produced 40–45 °C peaks, yet current steering patterns and dew-point forecasts suggest moderation relative to July extremes. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours, plus any shift in the subtropical ridge, remain the key variables that could move the distribution toward or away from the 34–35 °C cluster before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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