Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs, updated on September 20, indicate Moscow daytime highs near 20–22°C on September 21 under southerly flow and variable cloud cover, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 20°C (32%) and 21°C (37.5%). Southerly advection of milder air supports the upper end of this range, while increasing mid-level cloudiness and modest surface winds near 4–6 m/s could limit insolation and cap the peak closer to 20°C. Historical September climatology averages 17–18°C, making the current warmer signal notable but within typical model spread for late-summer transitions. Traders appear to weigh the latest ensemble guidance most heavily, with resolution hinging on final observational data from Roshydromet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on September 21?
Highest temperature in Moscow on September 21?
21°C 37%
20°C 32%
19°C 14%
22°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
3%
18°C
5%
19°C
14%
20°C
32%
21°C
37%
22°C
10%
23°C or higher
3%
21°C 37%
20°C 32%
19°C 14%
22°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
13°C or below
$111 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$403 Vol.
1%
16°C
$498 Vol.
2%
17°C
$112 Vol.
3%
18°C
$189 Vol.
5%
19°C
$1,557 Vol.
14%
20°C
$1,264 Vol.
32%
21°C
$288 Vol.
37%
22°C
$411 Vol.
10%
23°C or higher
$50 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs, updated on September 20, indicate Moscow daytime highs near 20–22°C on September 21 under southerly flow and variable cloud cover, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 20°C (32%) and 21°C (37.5%). Southerly advection of milder air supports the upper end of this range, while increasing mid-level cloudiness and modest surface winds near 4–6 m/s could limit insolation and cap the peak closer to 20°C. Historical September climatology averages 17–18°C, making the current warmer signal notable but within typical model spread for late-summer transitions. Traders appear to weigh the latest ensemble guidance most heavily, with resolution hinging on final observational data from Roshydromet.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$4,994End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs, updated on September 20, indicate Moscow daytime highs near 20–22°C on September 21 under southerly flow and variable cloud cover, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 20°C (32%) and 21°C (37.5%). Southerly advection of milder air supports the upper end of this range, while increasing mid-level cloudiness and modest surface winds near 4–6 m/s could limit insolation and cap the peak closer to 20°C. Historical September climatology averages 17–18°C, making the current warmer signal notable but within typical model spread for late-summer transitions. Traders appear to weigh the latest ensemble guidance most heavily, with resolution hinging on final observational data from Roshydromet.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,994End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent GFS and ECMWF model runs, updated on September 20, indicate Moscow daytime highs near 20–22°C on September 21 under southerly flow and variable cloud cover, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 20°C (32%) and 21°C (37.5%). Southerly advection of milder air supports the upper end of this range, while increasing mid-level cloudiness and modest surface winds near 4–6 m/s could limit insolation and cap the peak closer to 20°C. Historical September climatology averages 17–18°C, making the current warmer signal notable but within typical model spread for late-summer transitions. Traders appear to weigh the latest ensemble guidance most heavily, with resolution hinging on final observational data from Roshydromet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions