Recent European weather model consensus, including GFS runs, points to a mild westerly flow and partly cloudy skies over southern Germany on September 20, supporting maximum temperatures near 23–24 °C in Munich. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes and exceeds the late-September climatological average of roughly 19 °C. Stable high pressure and limited moisture advection are suppressing stronger cooling or convective activity, while light winds and moderate humidity favor efficient daytime heating. Ensemble spreads remain modest but acknowledge typical model uncertainty in exact peak timing and cloud cover, with fresh guidance expected from updated runs within the next 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on September 20?
Highest temperature in Munich on September 20?
24°C 45%
23°C 34%
25°C 18%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
5%
23°C
34%
24°C
45%
25°C
18%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
2%
24°C 45%
23°C 34%
25°C 18%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
18°C or below
$31 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$5 Vol.
1%
20°C
$5 Vol.
2%
21°C
$4 Vol.
2%
22°C
$143 Vol.
5%
23°C
$420 Vol.
34%
24°C
$2,233 Vol.
45%
25°C
$294 Vol.
18%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European weather model consensus, including GFS runs, points to a mild westerly flow and partly cloudy skies over southern Germany on September 20, supporting maximum temperatures near 23–24 °C in Munich. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes and exceeds the late-September climatological average of roughly 19 °C. Stable high pressure and limited moisture advection are suppressing stronger cooling or convective activity, while light winds and moderate humidity favor efficient daytime heating. Ensemble spreads remain modest but acknowledge typical model uncertainty in exact peak timing and cloud cover, with fresh guidance expected from updated runs within the next 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,140End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European weather model consensus, including GFS runs, points to a mild westerly flow and partly cloudy skies over southern Germany on September 20, supporting maximum temperatures near 23–24 °C in Munich. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes and exceeds the late-September climatological average of roughly 19 °C. Stable high pressure and limited moisture advection are suppressing stronger cooling or convective activity, while light winds and moderate humidity favor efficient daytime heating. Ensemble spreads remain modest but acknowledge typical model uncertainty in exact peak timing and cloud cover, with fresh guidance expected from updated runs within the next 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,140End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent European weather model consensus, including GFS runs, points to a mild westerly flow and partly cloudy skies over southern Germany on September 20, supporting maximum temperatures near 23–24 °C in Munich. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on those outcomes and exceeds the late-September climatological average of roughly 19 °C. Stable high pressure and limited moisture advection are suppressing stronger cooling or convective activity, while light winds and moderate humidity favor efficient daytime heating. Ensemble spreads remain modest but acknowledge typical model uncertainty in exact peak timing and cloud cover, with fresh guidance expected from updated runs within the next 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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