Current trader consensus centers on a 31–33°C high for Paris on August 4, reflecting latest ensemble guidance from Météo-France and ECMWF models that indicate continued warm advection under high pressure with limited cloud cover and light southerly flow. Minor spread in outcomes stems from uncertainty in exact peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-day convective development that could cap or enhance surface temperatures by 1–2°C. Historical August maxima near 26–29°C provide context, yet recent model runs show anomalies of +4–6°C persisting into early August. Updated 48-hour forecasts and satellite-derived land-surface heating rates will refine the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 4?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 4?
32°C 34%
31°C 26%
33°C 24%
34°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
29°C or below
6%
30°C
6%
31°C
26%
32°C
34%
33°C
24%
34°C
9%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
32°C 34%
31°C 26%
33°C 24%
34°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
29°C or below
$71 Vol.
6%
30°C
$31 Vol.
6%
31°C
$44 Vol.
26%
32°C
$196 Vol.
34%
33°C
$59 Vol.
24%
34°C
$75 Vol.
9%
35°C
$67 Vol.
2%
36°C
$36 Vol.
1%
37°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$46 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current trader consensus centers on a 31–33°C high for Paris on August 4, reflecting latest ensemble guidance from Météo-France and ECMWF models that indicate continued warm advection under high pressure with limited cloud cover and light southerly flow. Minor spread in outcomes stems from uncertainty in exact peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-day convective development that could cap or enhance surface temperatures by 1–2°C. Historical August maxima near 26–29°C provide context, yet recent model runs show anomalies of +4–6°C persisting into early August. Updated 48-hour forecasts and satellite-derived land-surface heating rates will refine the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$657End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current trader consensus centers on a 31–33°C high for Paris on August 4, reflecting latest ensemble guidance from Météo-France and ECMWF models that indicate continued warm advection under high pressure with limited cloud cover and light southerly flow. Minor spread in outcomes stems from uncertainty in exact peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-day convective development that could cap or enhance surface temperatures by 1–2°C. Historical August maxima near 26–29°C provide context, yet recent model runs show anomalies of +4–6°C persisting into early August. Updated 48-hour forecasts and satellite-derived land-surface heating rates will refine the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$657End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current trader consensus centers on a 31–33°C high for Paris on August 4, reflecting latest ensemble guidance from Météo-France and ECMWF models that indicate continued warm advection under high pressure with limited cloud cover and light southerly flow. Minor spread in outcomes stems from uncertainty in exact peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-day convective development that could cap or enhance surface temperatures by 1–2°C. Historical August maxima near 26–29°C provide context, yet recent model runs show anomalies of +4–6°C persisting into early August. Updated 48-hour forecasts and satellite-derived land-surface heating rates will refine the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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