**A broad heatwave across western Europe, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and southerly advection of warm air masses, positions mid-30s Celsius as the most likely peak for Paris on August 3.** Official guidance from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows high pressure persisting into early August, supporting daytime maxima near or slightly above seasonal norms (typically 25–28 °C) but elevated by the fourth heat episode of the summer. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited thunderstorm or cloud-cover risks that could cap temperatures, while Paris’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C locally at official observation sites. Recent model runs have stabilized around 34–36 °C outcomes, aligning with market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 35 °C (45 %) and 36 °C (26.5 %) while assigning low odds to 37 °C+ or sub-34 °C results. The next ECMWF and Météo-France updates, along with any overnight minimum trends that influence daytime recovery, represent the key near-term data points that could shift the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 3?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 3?
35°C 45%
36°C 27%
34°C 22%
37°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
32°C or below
2%
33°C
4%
34°C
22%
35°C
45%
36°C
27%
37°C
6%
38°C
2%
39°C
1%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
35°C 45%
36°C 27%
34°C 22%
37°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 3, 2026
32°C or below
$152 Vol.
2%
33°C
$13 Vol.
4%
34°C
$307 Vol.
22%
35°C
$224 Vol.
45%
36°C
$15 Vol.
27%
37°C
$168 Vol.
6%
38°C
$381 Vol.
2%
39°C
$65 Vol.
1%
40°C
$58 Vol.
1%
41°C
$84 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$499 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A broad heatwave across western Europe, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and southerly advection of warm air masses, positions mid-30s Celsius as the most likely peak for Paris on August 3.** Official guidance from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows high pressure persisting into early August, supporting daytime maxima near or slightly above seasonal norms (typically 25–28 °C) but elevated by the fourth heat episode of the summer. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited thunderstorm or cloud-cover risks that could cap temperatures, while Paris’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C locally at official observation sites. Recent model runs have stabilized around 34–36 °C outcomes, aligning with market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 35 °C (45 %) and 36 °C (26.5 %) while assigning low odds to 37 °C+ or sub-34 °C results. The next ECMWF and Météo-France updates, along with any overnight minimum trends that influence daytime recovery, represent the key near-term data points that could shift the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$1,967End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A broad heatwave across western Europe, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and southerly advection of warm air masses, positions mid-30s Celsius as the most likely peak for Paris on August 3.** Official guidance from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows high pressure persisting into early August, supporting daytime maxima near or slightly above seasonal norms (typically 25–28 °C) but elevated by the fourth heat episode of the summer. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited thunderstorm or cloud-cover risks that could cap temperatures, while Paris’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C locally at official observation sites. Recent model runs have stabilized around 34–36 °C outcomes, aligning with market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 35 °C (45 %) and 36 °C (26.5 %) while assigning low odds to 37 °C+ or sub-34 °C results. The next ECMWF and Météo-France updates, along with any overnight minimum trends that influence daytime recovery, represent the key near-term data points that could shift the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,967End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**A broad heatwave across western Europe, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and southerly advection of warm air masses, positions mid-30s Celsius as the most likely peak for Paris on August 3.** Official guidance from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows high pressure persisting into early August, supporting daytime maxima near or slightly above seasonal norms (typically 25–28 °C) but elevated by the fourth heat episode of the summer. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited thunderstorm or cloud-cover risks that could cap temperatures, while Paris’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C locally at official observation sites. Recent model runs have stabilized around 34–36 °C outcomes, aligning with market-implied probabilities that heavily favor 35 °C (45 %) and 36 °C (26.5 %) while assigning low odds to 37 °C+ or sub-34 °C results. The next ECMWF and Météo-France updates, along with any overnight minimum trends that influence daytime recovery, represent the key near-term data points that could shift the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions