Recent forecast consensus from models and agencies points to a warm, dry day in São Paulo on August 19 driven by high-pressure subsidence and a broader heat wave across southeastern Brazil, positioning 31°C and 32°C as the leading market outcomes with combined implied probability near 80%. August climatology typically features daytime highs near 23–25°C, but current conditions reflect above-average warmth persisting from recent days, with minimal cloud cover and light winds favoring peak temperatures in the low 30s Celsius. Official guidance notes limited model spread on maximum readings, though minor shifts in frontal timing or humidity could adjust the exact high; final station observations will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 19?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 19?
31°C 49%
32°C 32%
30°C 14%
33°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
4%
30°C
14%
31°C
49%
32°C
32%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 49%
32°C 32%
30°C 14%
33°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
26°C or below
$28 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$179 Vol.
1%
28°C
$111 Vol.
1%
29°C
$183 Vol.
4%
30°C
$242 Vol.
14%
31°C
$743 Vol.
49%
32°C
$226 Vol.
32%
33°C
$108 Vol.
5%
34°C
$112 Vol.
2%
35°C
$201 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$120 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models and agencies points to a warm, dry day in São Paulo on August 19 driven by high-pressure subsidence and a broader heat wave across southeastern Brazil, positioning 31°C and 32°C as the leading market outcomes with combined implied probability near 80%. August climatology typically features daytime highs near 23–25°C, but current conditions reflect above-average warmth persisting from recent days, with minimal cloud cover and light winds favoring peak temperatures in the low 30s Celsius. Official guidance notes limited model spread on maximum readings, though minor shifts in frontal timing or humidity could adjust the exact high; final station observations will resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 9:55 PM ET
Volume
$2,253End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models and agencies points to a warm, dry day in São Paulo on August 19 driven by high-pressure subsidence and a broader heat wave across southeastern Brazil, positioning 31°C and 32°C as the leading market outcomes with combined implied probability near 80%. August climatology typically features daytime highs near 23–25°C, but current conditions reflect above-average warmth persisting from recent days, with minimal cloud cover and light winds favoring peak temperatures in the low 30s Celsius. Official guidance notes limited model spread on maximum readings, though minor shifts in frontal timing or humidity could adjust the exact high; final station observations will resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,253End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from models and agencies points to a warm, dry day in São Paulo on August 19 driven by high-pressure subsidence and a broader heat wave across southeastern Brazil, positioning 31°C and 32°C as the leading market outcomes with combined implied probability near 80%. August climatology typically features daytime highs near 23–25°C, but current conditions reflect above-average warmth persisting from recent days, with minimal cloud cover and light winds favoring peak temperatures in the low 30s Celsius. Official guidance notes limited model spread on maximum readings, though minor shifts in frontal timing or humidity could adjust the exact high; final station observations will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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