Recent forecasts from multiple global and regional models converge on a dry, stable winter day for São Paulo on July 17 under subtropical high pressure, with abundant sunshine and light northeasterly winds. Official guidance points to daytime maxima near 23–26 °C, consistent with the observed 23–26 °C range recorded over the past week and slightly above the mid-July climatological mean of ~21–23 °C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C reflects residual model spread: small differences in boundary-layer mixing, surface heating rates, and urban heat-island effects at the official observing site can shift the recorded peak by 1 °C. No incoming cold front or significant moisture is expected to alter the trajectory before tomorrow’s maximum, leaving traders weighting the 25 °C and 26 °C outcomes most heavily while acknowledging the narrow uncertainty band inherent to short-range temperature forecasting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 17?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 17?
25°C 36%
26°C 28%
24°C 16%
23°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 17, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
9%
24°C
16%
25°C
36%
26°C
28%
27°C
5%
28°C
8%
29°C or higher
2%
25°C 36%
26°C 28%
24°C 16%
23°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 17, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$31 Vol.
1%
22°C
$23 Vol.
1%
23°C
$46 Vol.
9%
24°C
$27 Vol.
16%
25°C
$6 Vol.
36%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
5%
28°C
$0 Vol.
8%
29°C or higher
$24 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple global and regional models converge on a dry, stable winter day for São Paulo on July 17 under subtropical high pressure, with abundant sunshine and light northeasterly winds. Official guidance points to daytime maxima near 23–26 °C, consistent with the observed 23–26 °C range recorded over the past week and slightly above the mid-July climatological mean of ~21–23 °C.
The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C reflects residual model spread: small differences in boundary-layer mixing, surface heating rates, and urban heat-island effects at the official observing site can shift the recorded peak by 1 °C. No incoming cold front or significant moisture is expected to alter the trajectory before tomorrow’s maximum, leaving traders weighting the 25 °C and 26 °C outcomes most heavily while acknowledging the narrow uncertainty band inherent to short-range temperature forecasting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$162End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple global and regional models converge on a dry, stable winter day for São Paulo on July 17 under subtropical high pressure, with abundant sunshine and light northeasterly winds. Official guidance points to daytime maxima near 23–26 °C, consistent with the observed 23–26 °C range recorded over the past week and slightly above the mid-July climatological mean of ~21–23 °C.
The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C reflects residual model spread: small differences in boundary-layer mixing, surface heating rates, and urban heat-island effects at the official observing site can shift the recorded peak by 1 °C. No incoming cold front or significant moisture is expected to alter the trajectory before tomorrow’s maximum, leaving traders weighting the 25 °C and 26 °C outcomes most heavily while acknowledging the narrow uncertainty band inherent to short-range temperature forecasting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$162End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple global and regional models converge on a dry, stable winter day for São Paulo on July 17 under subtropical high pressure, with abundant sunshine and light northeasterly winds. Official guidance points to daytime maxima near 23–26 °C, consistent with the observed 23–26 °C range recorded over the past week and slightly above the mid-July climatological mean of ~21–23 °C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds between 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C reflects residual model spread: small differences in boundary-layer mixing, surface heating rates, and urban heat-island effects at the official observing site can shift the recorded peak by 1 °C. No incoming cold front or significant moisture is expected to alter the trajectory before tomorrow’s maximum, leaving traders weighting the 25 °C and 26 °C outcomes most heavily while acknowledging the narrow uncertainty band inherent to short-range temperature forecasting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions