Current forecast consensus from the Israel Meteorological Service, Met Office, and regional models points to a daily maximum of 32–33°C in Tel Aviv on August 20 under typical mid-August Mediterranean conditions of abundant sunshine, light westerly flow, and moderating sea breezes that limit extreme daytime heating. This alignment explains the market's concentration on 33°C (55.5% implied probability) and nearby outcomes, with small variations in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover able to shift the peak across thresholds. Recent model runs show no major heat advection or cooling fronts, keeping probabilities for 34°C or higher modest while historical August climatology (average highs near 31–32°C) supports the tight clustering around these values. Updated guidance ahead of the date could refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 20?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 20?
33°C 62%
32°C 23%
34°C 19%
35°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
29°C or below
2%
30°C
6%
31°C
3%
32°C
23%
33°C
62%
34°C
19%
35°C
14%
36°C
6%
37°C
4%
38°C
3%
39°C or higher
3%
33°C 62%
32°C 23%
34°C 19%
35°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 20, 2026
29°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
30°C
$10 Vol.
6%
31°C
$53 Vol.
3%
32°C
$0 Vol.
23%
33°C
$68 Vol.
62%
34°C
$0 Vol.
19%
35°C
$27 Vol.
14%
36°C
$5 Vol.
6%
37°C
$5 Vol.
4%
38°C
$5 Vol.
3%
39°C or higher
$5 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from the Israel Meteorological Service, Met Office, and regional models points to a daily maximum of 32–33°C in Tel Aviv on August 20 under typical mid-August Mediterranean conditions of abundant sunshine, light westerly flow, and moderating sea breezes that limit extreme daytime heating. This alignment explains the market's concentration on 33°C (55.5% implied probability) and nearby outcomes, with small variations in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover able to shift the peak across thresholds. Recent model runs show no major heat advection or cooling fronts, keeping probabilities for 34°C or higher modest while historical August climatology (average highs near 31–32°C) supports the tight clustering around these values. Updated guidance ahead of the date could refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$183End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from the Israel Meteorological Service, Met Office, and regional models points to a daily maximum of 32–33°C in Tel Aviv on August 20 under typical mid-August Mediterranean conditions of abundant sunshine, light westerly flow, and moderating sea breezes that limit extreme daytime heating. This alignment explains the market's concentration on 33°C (55.5% implied probability) and nearby outcomes, with small variations in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover able to shift the peak across thresholds. Recent model runs show no major heat advection or cooling fronts, keeping probabilities for 34°C or higher modest while historical August climatology (average highs near 31–32°C) supports the tight clustering around these values. Updated guidance ahead of the date could refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$183End Date
Aug 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from the Israel Meteorological Service, Met Office, and regional models points to a daily maximum of 32–33°C in Tel Aviv on August 20 under typical mid-August Mediterranean conditions of abundant sunshine, light westerly flow, and moderating sea breezes that limit extreme daytime heating. This alignment explains the market's concentration on 33°C (55.5% implied probability) and nearby outcomes, with small variations in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover able to shift the peak across thresholds. Recent model runs show no major heat advection or cooling fronts, keeping probabilities for 34°C or higher modest while historical August climatology (average highs near 31–32°C) supports the tight clustering around these values. Updated guidance ahead of the date could refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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