Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across Japan for summer 2026, driven by a stronger Pacific High, yet short-term model guidance for early August points to moderating conditions in Tokyo with possible cloud cover and variable onshore flow limiting peaks. Historical August maxima average near 31.8°C, but day-to-day variability from humidity, urban heat retention, and steering patterns often produces ranges of 27–30°C. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered on 28–29°C, traders appear focused on these near-term factors over the broader warm anomaly, as updated forecast runs and observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine resolution thresholds in coming days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?
28°C 30%
29°C 29%
27°C 20%
30°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
6%
27°C
20%
28°C
30%
29°C
29%
30°C
13%
31°C
5%
32°C or higher
3%
28°C 30%
29°C 29%
27°C 20%
30°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 4, 2026
22°C or below
$419 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$409 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$499 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$20 Vol.
2%
26°C
$36 Vol.
6%
27°C
$160 Vol.
20%
28°C
$249 Vol.
30%
29°C
$24 Vol.
29%
30°C
$223 Vol.
13%
31°C
$477 Vol.
5%
32°C or higher
$10 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across Japan for summer 2026, driven by a stronger Pacific High, yet short-term model guidance for early August points to moderating conditions in Tokyo with possible cloud cover and variable onshore flow limiting peaks. Historical August maxima average near 31.8°C, but day-to-day variability from humidity, urban heat retention, and steering patterns often produces ranges of 27–30°C. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered on 28–29°C, traders appear focused on these near-term factors over the broader warm anomaly, as updated forecast runs and observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine resolution thresholds in coming days.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,525End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across Japan for summer 2026, driven by a stronger Pacific High, yet short-term model guidance for early August points to moderating conditions in Tokyo with possible cloud cover and variable onshore flow limiting peaks. Historical August maxima average near 31.8°C, but day-to-day variability from humidity, urban heat retention, and steering patterns often produces ranges of 27–30°C. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered on 28–29°C, traders appear focused on these near-term factors over the broader warm anomaly, as updated forecast runs and observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine resolution thresholds in coming days.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,525End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across Japan for summer 2026, driven by a stronger Pacific High, yet short-term model guidance for early August points to moderating conditions in Tokyo with possible cloud cover and variable onshore flow limiting peaks. Historical August maxima average near 31.8°C, but day-to-day variability from humidity, urban heat retention, and steering patterns often produces ranges of 27–30°C. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered on 28–29°C, traders appear focused on these near-term factors over the broader warm anomaly, as updated forecast runs and observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine resolution thresholds in coming days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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