Recent model runs from ECMWF and other ensembles show Warsaw maximum temperatures on July 17 centered near 30–31 °C, with trader-implied odds reflecting typical 1–2 °C spread at a two-day lead time. A persistent high-pressure ridge over central Europe, combined with dry antecedent soils from the early-July heatwave and clear-sky solar heating, favors readings in this range while limiting convective cooling. Minor differences among 30 °C, 31 °C, and 32 °C brackets hinge on small variations in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud timing, and exact steering of the ridge axis. Official station observations at Chopin Airport will resolve the market once the daily maximum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on July 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 17?
31°C 38%
30°C 31%
32°C 17%
29°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 17, 2026
28°C or below
11%
29°C
13%
30°C
31%
31°C
38%
32°C
17%
33°C
11%
34°C
1%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
31°C 38%
30°C 31%
32°C 17%
29°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Jul 17, 2026
28°C or below
$0 Vol.
11%
29°C
$0 Vol.
13%
30°C
$0 Vol.
31%
31°C
$42 Vol.
38%
32°C
$0 Vol.
17%
33°C
$0 Vol.
11%
34°C
$5 Vol.
1%
35°C
$10 Vol.
1%
36°C
$10 Vol.
1%
37°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from ECMWF and other ensembles show Warsaw maximum temperatures on July 17 centered near 30–31 °C, with trader-implied odds reflecting typical 1–2 °C spread at a two-day lead time. A persistent high-pressure ridge over central Europe, combined with dry antecedent soils from the early-July heatwave and clear-sky solar heating, favors readings in this range while limiting convective cooling. Minor differences among 30 °C, 31 °C, and 32 °C brackets hinge on small variations in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud timing, and exact steering of the ridge axis. Official station observations at Chopin Airport will resolve the market once the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$67End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from ECMWF and other ensembles show Warsaw maximum temperatures on July 17 centered near 30–31 °C, with trader-implied odds reflecting typical 1–2 °C spread at a two-day lead time. A persistent high-pressure ridge over central Europe, combined with dry antecedent soils from the early-July heatwave and clear-sky solar heating, favors readings in this range while limiting convective cooling. Minor differences among 30 °C, 31 °C, and 32 °C brackets hinge on small variations in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud timing, and exact steering of the ridge axis. Official station observations at Chopin Airport will resolve the market once the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$67End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs from ECMWF and other ensembles show Warsaw maximum temperatures on July 17 centered near 30–31 °C, with trader-implied odds reflecting typical 1–2 °C spread at a two-day lead time. A persistent high-pressure ridge over central Europe, combined with dry antecedent soils from the early-July heatwave and clear-sky solar heating, favors readings in this range while limiting convective cooling. Minor differences among 30 °C, 31 °C, and 32 °C brackets hinge on small variations in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon cloud timing, and exact steering of the ridge axis. Official station observations at Chopin Airport will resolve the market once the daily maximum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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