Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place the overnight minimum in central Paris near 17–19 °C for July 17, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under a lingering warm, stable airmass. Recent heatwave conditions have elevated baseline temperatures, while the urban heat-island effect consistently adds 1–2 °C to observed lows relative to model grid points. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 18 °C because that outcome aligns with the median of latest high-resolution runs, yet the tight clustering of probabilities across 15–22 °C brackets reflects genuine model divergence on whether clear skies or increased low-level moisture will allow further radiational cooling. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on July 17?
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 17?
19°C 36%
18°C 27%
17°C 18%
20°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Jul 17, 2026
15°C or below
9%
16°C
15%
17°C
18%
18°C
27%
19°C
24%
20°C
16%
21°C
16%
22°C
9%
23°C
8%
24°C
14%
25°C or higher
14%
19°C 36%
18°C 27%
17°C 18%
20°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Jul 17, 2026
15°C or below
$50 Vol.
9%
16°C
$0 Vol.
15%
17°C
$0 Vol.
18%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$6 Vol.
24%
20°C
$0 Vol.
16%
21°C
$0 Vol.
16%
22°C
$13 Vol.
9%
23°C
$91 Vol.
8%
24°C
$92 Vol.
14%
25°C or higher
$92 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place the overnight minimum in central Paris near 17–19 °C for July 17, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under a lingering warm, stable airmass. Recent heatwave conditions have elevated baseline temperatures, while the urban heat-island effect consistently adds 1–2 °C to observed lows relative to model grid points. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 18 °C because that outcome aligns with the median of latest high-resolution runs, yet the tight clustering of probabilities across 15–22 °C brackets reflects genuine model divergence on whether clear skies or increased low-level moisture will allow further radiational cooling. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$338End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place the overnight minimum in central Paris near 17–19 °C for July 17, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under a lingering warm, stable airmass. Recent heatwave conditions have elevated baseline temperatures, while the urban heat-island effect consistently adds 1–2 °C to observed lows relative to model grid points. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 18 °C because that outcome aligns with the median of latest high-resolution runs, yet the tight clustering of probabilities across 15–22 °C brackets reflects genuine model divergence on whether clear skies or increased low-level moisture will allow further radiational cooling. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$338End Date
Jul 17, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place the overnight minimum in central Paris near 17–19 °C for July 17, with modest spread arising from uncertainty in nocturnal cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing under a lingering warm, stable airmass. Recent heatwave conditions have elevated baseline temperatures, while the urban heat-island effect consistently adds 1–2 °C to observed lows relative to model grid points. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 18 °C because that outcome aligns with the median of latest high-resolution runs, yet the tight clustering of probabilities across 15–22 °C brackets reflects genuine model divergence on whether clear skies or increased low-level moisture will allow further radiational cooling. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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