Recent short-term forecasts position 17–18°C as the leading outcomes for Warsaw’s June 15 high, reflecting a cooler air mass advected by moderate westerly winds and widespread thundery showers that limit solar heating and daytime maxima. Official guidance from sources such as the BBC indicates a high near 17°C under overcast, unstable conditions, while climatological June averages near 22°C underscore how this transient pattern deviates from seasonal norms. Traders appear to weigh ensemble model consensus and the narrow 24-hour window before resolution, with limited upside risk for 19°C+ or downside below 16°C given the stable steering flow and modest instability. Updated model runs and any last-minute shifts in cloud cover or shower timing remain the key variables that could adjust implied probabilities before the day concludes.