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Climate & Science·Weather

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

icon for How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
Climate & Science·Weather

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

14–16 29%

11–13 27%

17–19 21%

20+ 10.8%

Polymarket

$1,304,826 Vol.

14–16 29%

11–13 27%

17–19 21%

20+ 10.8%

Polymarket

$1,304,826 Vol.

5–7

$70,054 Vol.

1%

8–10

$129,317 Vol.

10%

11–13

$410,303 Vol.

27%

14–16

$183,898 Vol.

29%

17–19

$206,151 Vol.

21%

20+

$62,164 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS seismic records confirm five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through May 13—near Sabah, Malaysia (Feb. 22, M7.1); off Tonga (Mar. 24, M7.5); Vanuatu (Mar. 30, M7.3); North Maluku, Indonesia (Apr. 1, M7.4); and Iwate, Japan (Apr. 20, M7.4)—aligning with the historical global average of 15-16 such events annually and projecting roughly 14 total if the pace holds. Concentrated along Pacific subduction zones, this steady activity drives closely matched market-implied odds for 14-16 (29%) versus 11-13 (27%), as traders weigh year-to-year variability from stochastic tectonic stress release on fault lines, with standard deviations spanning 10-20 events. No forecasting models predict deviations; USGS real-time monitoring will track remaining months for clusters or lulls.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,304,826
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS seismic records confirm five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through May 13—near Sabah, Malaysia (Feb. 22, M7.1); off Tonga (Mar. 24, M7.5); Vanuatu (Mar. 30, M7.3); North Maluku, Indonesia (Apr. 1, M7.4); and Iwate, Japan (Apr. 20, M7.4)—aligning with the historical global average of 15-16 such events annually and projecting roughly 14 total if the pace holds. Concentrated along Pacific subduction zones, this steady activity drives closely matched market-implied odds for 14-16 (29%) versus 11-13 (27%), as traders weigh year-to-year variability from stochastic tectonic stress release on fault lines, with standard deviations spanning 10-20 events. No forecasting models predict deviations; USGS real-time monitoring will track remaining months for clusters or lulls.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,304,826
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "14–16" at 28%, followed by "11–13" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 31, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" is "14–16" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "11–13" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.